Book Review-5

 Technological Change and the Future of Warfare 

Michael O’Hanlon,
Washington, D.C:  The Brookings Institute, 2000.
Pages 208

ichael O’Hanlon, Michael O’Hanlon is Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institute. The book under review examines the hypothesis of achievement of Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) in the near future and the possibility of re-evaluation of military budgets, war fighting strategies and induction of modern arms in order to pursue United States (US) policy objectives for its military. New technologies and tactical/ operational innovations have the potential to make important contributions to warfare by 2020. The book is divided into eight chapters and each chapter contributes to the debate on RMA. The RMA debate is important because the validity of its hypothesis would lead to more productive and judicious utilization of US military resources and serve its security interests in an economical way.

The author’s personal reservations for the theory of RMA are quite visible. Some parts of the book may be difficult to understand for an average reader who is not conversant with the technical details and jargons regarding the issue.

The book advocates that high technology has not always been such a central ingredient in US defence strategy, which is contradictory to historical evidences. The end of World War-II was the result of nuclear technology, which revolutionized the battlefield. The vertical and horizontal arms race during the Cold War era is further evidence of the use of high technology in US defence strategy.  The rapid mobilization of the US military in the Gulf War and its outcome was the result of RMA. The contemporary issue of National Missile Defence (NMD), and political support for this programme reflects the significance of high technology.

The author discusses various schools of thoughts in RMA. He used the references of “Joint Vision 2010,” a report by Defence Secretary William Cohen. According to the report, the goals for US military forces are, superior battlefield knowledge, full-dimensional protection, dominant manoeuvre, and precision strike. The report includes that in the 21st century, the US military will be able to find targets in real time – any thing of consequence that moves upon or is located on earth by Global Positioning System (GPS).

            There are four basic schools of thought in RMA. The first school of thought is the “System of System School,” which focuses on the advancement in computers, communications, and networking to make the functioning of existing weapons systems more effective. The second one is “Dominant Battle Space Knowledge,” which accepts the premises of the first school of thought as well as the sensors and transparency in battlefield. The third one is “Global Reach, Global Power,” school that supports the technological advancement to develop lethal, agile and deployable weapons. It accepts the above mentioned school of thoughts as well. The last one is “Vulnerability School,” which desires the whole world to be benefited by RMA. On the other hand the US needs to seek new military concepts to overcome the challenges to its military supremacy and national security. The chronology of RMA, as given in the book, is very interesting, and proves helpful in providing insights into the evolution of the subject. The author argues that if RMA is attainable, then it should be pursued pragmatically.

            While discussing the technical details of the subject, author frequently uses the jargon of physics to illustrate the innate limitations of key military technologies. After analysing the prospects of technological progress in the coming decades, the author states that on the one hand, the role of computer is inevitable in the future battlefields and on the other hand, there are important limitations and vulnerabilities, which will remain in these technological spheres. He analyses the mechanical, chemical, and structural technologies regarding the subject. He also discusses the non-lethal and biological weapons and defence systems against ballistic and cruise missile attacks containing information about the trends in the types of technology and extrapolates their future capabilities and uses. It makes futuristic assumptions about warfare and battlefields. The most interesting part of the whole book is where the author discusses three case studies, namely, Operation Desert Storm, Kosovo 1999, and the Falklands War 1982, to support his arguments. He argues that technological advancement cannot alter the importance of traditional military tactics, but RMA can be helpful in achieving national objectives.

           There are interesting debates about the future need for overseas US military bases, the future nature of multinational military operations and the possibility of eliminating nuclear weapons world wide, as well as reducing the vulnerability of US forces to Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). RMA advocates belief that in case of RMA, the need for overseas military bases will be reduced. Some advocates of RMA believe that the purpose of RMA will be an American phenomenon, which would leave allies of the US in the high-tech dust and make the conduct of combined military operations difficult on a multinational basis. Another small group of RMA supporters state that technological advancement would make it possible to eliminate nuclear weapons from the face of the earth within decades, as well as reduce the military’s vulnerabilities to chemical and biological weapons.    

            The author has tried to formulate a strategy to modernize the defence of the US while keeping in view the defence strategies of other major powers. His major concern is the economic compatibility between the defence strategies and the economy of the US. He has stated that the US can devise a more affordable modern military strategy by emphasizing on the electronics and computer advancement, which offers new capabilities at modest cost.

            The book provides opportunity for enhancing knowledge about the new ideas/theories and their application to modern warfare.

Asma Shakir Khawaja

Assistant Research Officer, IPRI