Yet another disappointment over F-16s

Pakistan OBSERVER, Thu, March,24, 2005.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema


A section of Pakistani print media appeared to have interpreted Secretary Rice’s visit to Pakistan as not all that encouraging. The main source of disappointment was ambiguous attitude of the visiting American official over the issue of F-16’s supply to Pakistan. The impression generated is that the supply of few F-16 to Pakistan is somewhat linked with a nod from India. If this is true as most indicators point towards this assessment, then this is indeed not a very encouraging development.

Secretary Rice reportedly has stated, in an interview with the NDTV, that the US very much wants a military balance in the region that preserves peace. The question that is being asked in many quarters revolves around the nature of military balance. What kind of military balance Secretary Rice has in mind? Both India and Pakistan seem to have different notions of military balance. It is indeed very difficult to ascertain the appropriate military balance.

While setting out to analyze a country's security problems, the security planners often begin initially with the identification of threats emanating from external or internal sources. Later they move on to the evaluation of the manner and the intensity of the perceived threats. Comprehensive dossiers on actual and potential adversaries are carefully prepared highlighting the adversaries' capabilities and intentions. The justifications for a certain level of force posture are frequently found in the perceived adversary's intentions and country's security requirements as assessed by the planners.

Having assessed the requirements, the security planners begin to work towards the attainment of the desired level of military preparedness. They perceive it as being ensured or protected through the existence of certain force level along with necessary military tools and equipment.  Efforts are directed to acquire the preferred military equipment. In this connection the Pakistani quest to acquire F-16s should be seen.

Admittedly the issue of F-16 has been in the news for a very long time and Pakistan’s concerted efforts have not been able to convince the Americans to allow Pakistan the acquisition of these multipurpose aircrafts but to offer to sell the same aircrafts to India have certainly invoked reaction and sometimes even angry reaction among many Pakistanis. Whether or not India needs these aircrafts is somewhat irrelevant, but the fact that these aircrafts have been consistently denied to Pakistan has certainly become a sources of irritation.

Some Pakistanis have begun to think that American concept of military balance is somewhat lopsided. The perception in circulation is that the US wants to see a very strong India which cannot be challenged by any other regional state. The issue of F-16 becomes even more complicated when a comparative analysis of American policies with regard to India and Pakistan is made with academic rigours.

While India is regarded as the strategic partner of US, the Pakistan is wooed with prospects of long term relationships and the status of a non-NATO ally. The strategic partner is being pampered with all sorts of concessions whereas the non-NATO ally is denied the requisite F-16. The supply of all those weapons which India wants is ensured in some forms. Even those countries which make certain sophisticated weapons under licence are given green light to supply the weapons to India.

A comparative analysis of the two air forces clearly reveals an increasing disparity. While India possess more than double the combat aircrafts than what Pakistan has in its arsenal, to deny the Pakistanis few F-16s does not make sense. Admittedly Pakistan can never hope to attain even a near parity situation with India; it does need to maintain sufficient capability to deter and deny the adversary to realise its objectives.

It is not too difficult to comprehend the problems confronting the US executive in order to secure the necessary permission from its Congress but one should not forget the sacrifices and contributions Pakistan has made in the prosecution of war against terrorism.  Despite being over projected status of non-NATO ally, many Pakistanis are now thinking that American concept of military balance implies militarily much inferior Pakistan.

Secretary Rice has highlighted rather forcefully American intensions to maintain long term relations with Pakistan. Indeed this has been welcomed by many in Pakistan but undesired delay in the decision regarding the supply of F-16s to Pakistan is unnecessarily accumulating apprehensions. If these apprehensions are allowed to solidify, then it is indeed difficult to see how the desired long term relations can be achieved.

Long term relationship implies gradual building of trust between the involved parties. Trust requires not only full comprehensions of each others difficulties but also joint work towards the early removal of tensions and extending the desired level of help in order to ameliorate the situation. If the Americans keep on postponing the decision regarding the supply of F-16s to Pakistan, then undesired thoughts are bound to creep in. Already some Pakistani is convinced that US is still listening to the Indians and denying the supply of requisite aircrafts to Pakistan.

The delay over the issue of F-16s supply to Pakistan has begun to take the undesired toll from the already depleted reservoir of goodwill for the Americans. Perhaps the notion that these aircrafts are denied because of India is causing major damage to Pak-US relationships. It is imperative that the decision regarding this issue should be taken soon rather than delaying it. Further delay would inevitably accelerate the process of damage. To regain the confidence of the people of Pakistan, it is essential that the US administration secure the necessary permission and quickly supply these aircrafts to Pakistan. Alternative situation could produce insurmountable obstacles which can not only slow down the efforts to improve relationship but could also cause the unwanted reversals.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy Research Institute.