What led to BJP’s electoral defeat?

The News, Sun, May,16, 2004.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema



With Indian economy galloping at 8% growth rate and having made India a militarily powerful nation, the stunning results of the recent Indian general elections left many analysts somewhat perplexed. Almost all pre-election forecasts indicated an easy win for BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party). Some polls were even predicting a clean sweep for BJP. But the Indian electorate appeared to have defied all political pundit’s augured calculations and inflicted a stunning defeat on the BJP led coalition. What happened? What are the factors that contributed towards the fall of BJP?

Many factors seem to have made contributions towards the poor electoral performance of the BJP. To begin with it would be appropriate to talk on the main plank upon which BJP was depending so heavily. Admittedly the economy was doing well and India’s reserves were over one hundred billion dollars but the benefits of strong economy were not reaching the largest segment of Indian society. The middle class along with industrial class did reap the benefits of booming economy but the India’s poor were completely left out. The poverty was just as rampant as was the case during the pre-BJP rule. The fruits of strong economy were not trickling down the largest segment of the Indian society.

An additional linked factor that could have contributed towards BJP’s fall revolves around lack of focus on rural poor. More than seventy five percent of Indian population lives in rural areas of India and BJP seems to have not devoted deserving attention to the development of rural India. Much of its focus was fixed in the urban centers. Ostensibly they did not adhere to M.K.Gandhi’s assertion that rural India is the real backbone of Indian strength. Even the benefits of strong economy were reaching urbanites only.

Second factor that should have been subjected to some rectification and improvisation measures deals with the incumbent high level of employment. Not only there exist roughly sixty percent unemployment among the youth but also general lack of concentration to create new jobs appeared to have taken a very heavy toll of BJP’s popularity. The BJP government had promised to create more than twenty million jobs but was unable to attain the predicted target. Indeed some jobs were created but these were far short of augured numbers.

Third significant reason appears to be the gross miscalculation of Congress’s ability to attract votes and BJP’s over confidence about its own performance. In addition almost all polls were predicting that the most popular leader was A.B. Vajpayee as more than 50% Indians expressed their desire in favor of Vajpayee as the most favorite Prime Minister of India whereas vote favoring Mrs. Sonia Gandhi for the Prime Ministerial slot never exceeded 30%.  This led the BJP to underestimate the Mrs. Gandhi’s abilities to bounce back to power. What the BJP did not take into considerations was that the age of the Prime Minister could also be construed as a liability. Besides, his forgetfulness has also been frequently mentioned. While Mr.Vajpayee enjoys tremendous respect within India as well as in South Asia, some questions are also regularly raised that in his absence who would head the BJP led coalition and is there another individual within Sangh Parivar who can hold the coalition together. The answer is often in negative.

The fourth factor that seems to have made impressive contributions revolves around Congress’s effective and calculated political campaign. Not only it focused on issues and problem confronting largest segment of Indian society but also the party played it cards rather carefully. Its coalition strategy certainly appears to have paid expected dividends. The downtrodden classes were attracted more to realistic and pragmatic approaches of the Congress party than to BJP’s rhetoric. In addition the Congress was able to cleverly blunt BJP’s slogan that Mrs. Sonia Gandhi was a foreigner and would India like to have a foreigner as its Prime Minister. Despite the fact Mrs. Sonia Gandhi had frequently stated her acceptance within Mrs.Indira Gandhi’s family but the Sangh Parivar had been continuously drumming this charge against her. What appears to be an interesting political move is that Mrs. Sonia Gandhi never projected herself as the candidate for the post of Prime Minister? In stead she kept on asserting that the Congress working Committee would take the decision at the right time.

A linked factor that also seemed to have paid some dividends is the introduction of children of late Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi into this election at an appropriate time. In many ways the political campaign conducted by the mother and children re-invigorated the dynastic popularity of the Gandhi family. The ease with which the members of this family won their seat reflects the upsurge in popularity.

The fifth factor that has always played its role is what is known as the incumbency factor. This factor works both ways-it can help the ruling government to stabilize and strengthen its hold if it has fulfilled most of its election promises but it can also take a heavy toll if the performance of the incumbent government is far from the fulfillment of electoral promises. A voter is often attracted to a certain propagated and projected program by a political party or by an alliance of parties. At the time of next election, many voters take a comprehensive look at the record and assess in their own ways whether or not the promises made at the time of previous elections are fulfilled.  An incumbent government has a large record to defend. Invariably the incumbency factor makes its deserving contributions.

The sixth reason for the downfall of the BJP’s government revolves around what is known as the ‘Muslim factor’. Apart from the state of Jammu and Kashmir, the Muslims are not concentrated in any other state of India. They are scattered all over India. However the value of their vote is fully recognized by all the political parties of India and invariably all try to woo them closer to elections. Indeed this election is no exception to this general perception. Both Congress and BJP tried to attract their support. Although many Muslim voters remember rather vividly what happened to Babri mosque and the subsequent riots but a vast majority of them were still overwhelmed by the Gujarat killings of the Muslims in recent times. It seems that they had neither forgotten the savagery of the Hindu extremists in Gujarat nor forgiven the BJP’s protective umbrella that was extended to Nirender Modi and extremist Hindu groups.

The seventh factor that certainly has played its role rather effectively is the unity of all secular forces in their bid to get rid of Hindu extremist parties. This feeling gained momentum and further strengthened when the Gujarat killings took place. At the time many expressed their desire for secular parties to unite in order to protect and preserve India’s secular image. The anticipated construction of Ram mandir and projected demolition of many more mosques in India had confirmed the impression that Indian secularism was fast eroding despite the fact that its constitution clearly mention the secular character of India. The cry to save India’s secular image ostensibly seemed to have paid some dividends in this election.

The final factor that has extended the much-needed helping hand in pushing the BJP over is the poor performance of BJP’s regional partners. In many ways the crushing defeat of BJP’s partners in both Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh struck a very heavy blow to BJP’s ability to attract vote. Despite the fact the BJP’s strong partners in both these states claimed to have done well over the years, neither of these partners was able to assess accurately the simmering anger against the incumbent regimes. In the last election the BJP’s partners in these southern states performed very well and it was hoped that they might be able to repeat their performance but this did not happen.

A combination of above mentioned factors seem to have facilitated the toppling of BJP government and producing the unexpected results.