Western optimism & Afghanistan situation

Pakistan OBSERVER, Thu, Jan,24, 2008.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema
 

Many in the West feel that it is only a matter of time when Afghanistan would be fully stabilized through the efforts of both NATO and the Americans. Many recent developments have raised hopes for early advent of peace and stability in Afghanistan. Among them are included the likely dispatch of American marine force to Afghanistan, the rebirth of Afghan Air Force, the improved training of Afghan national army, peace Jirgas and gradually improving Pak-Afghan relations etc. In a recent interview to the Los Angeles Times the American Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that he believed NATO forces deployed in Southern Afghanistan do not know how to combat insurgency. He further stated that ‘combating insurgency is a complex thing and not always easy’.  Despite the latest criticism by American Defense Secretary Robert Gates, the NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop not only rejected the criticism but continue to generate hope and optimism. 

The US decision to deploy 3200 marines to Afghanistan in April 2008 is seen as a stronger and continuing commitment of the Western resolve. The additional US troops would increase the American forces strength from 27000 to little over 30,000. Undoubtedly there appears to be a growing realization on the part of Americans that more forces are needed to deal with the Afghanistan situation. The second significant development that tends to generate optimism revolves around the rebirth of Afghan air force. Undoubtedly the rebirth of Afghan air force would boost Afghanistan’s forces. The need for transporting troops and supplies was continuously felt by the Afghans but in the absence of air forces, it became totally dependent upon foreigners. Afghanistan has already taken delivery of 26 new and refurbished aircrafts including Czech made helicopter gunship. 

With Western money the Afghan government has also secured transport helicopters and Ukrainian military planes. Opening the hanger at Kabul air port President Karazai jubilantly stressed that God has blessed Afghanistan with the rebirth of the Afghan air force. The Afghan air force came into existence in1925 and reached its peak under the Soviet back government in Kabul during the 1980s but it was totally extinguished during the civil was that followed the departure of the Soviets. 

The Afghan government intends to recruit a force of around 3500 persons during the next three to four years and expand its air crafts to 61. The Afghan government has recently established an air force base in Kabul with extensive residential space as well as maintenance and repair facilities. It is assumed that this newly created air force would play a crucial role in defeating Taliban insurgency. 

Second source of augured Western optimism is the renewed training program of the Afghan national Army. Initially the Afghan army was trained by the Western countries but their performance indicated that more rigorous training is required to enable them to effectively take on the Taliban. What was specifically realized was the need to train them to fight insurgency. 

The third element that is being talked about is the advent of a Joint Peace Jirga in which both the Pakistani tribesmen along with their Afghan counterparts participated. The common Jirga undoubtedly raised hopes as a smaller Jirga was also constituted in order to talk to the Taliban also and make efforts to bring them in with a view to inject peace and stability in Afghanistan as soon as possible. Contradictory reports appeared in the print media that initially Taliban leaders agreed to participate in these joint peace efforts but later reports revealed that there are still difficulties to enlist Taliban support. 

Another significant development that took place three months back is the formation of a peace forum consisting of governors, lawmakers and tribal elders of four eastern provinces with the expressed objective to end the ongoing violence. President Karazai not only welcomed the formation of peace forum as a new message and glad tidings but also assured the forum his full support. The forum intends to enlist the support of leaders of other provinces. 

The fourth factor that is generally generating good vibes revolves around improved Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. While Pakistan has been consistently engaged in improving its relations with the incumbent Afghan government, some hostile elements within the incumbent government did manage to impede the improvisation process. Cognizant of Afghanistan’s ethnic composition, its proximity to Pakistan, the age old trading interaction have all influenced Pakistan’s Afghan policy. An additional factor that is often talked about is the intended gas pipeline link with Turkmenistan via Afghanistan. Hence Pakistan is deeply committed to have a peaceful and friendly neighbor. 

For many outsiders all the above mentioned factors tend to generate optimism. Since NATO’s involvement in Afghanistan has given birth to increased interest of Europeans in Afghanistan’s affairs, many European countries not only almost regularly express their desire to see the advent of peace in Afghanistan but also frequently reiterate their commitments. The latest assertion of commitment has been aired by the Norwegian Foreign Minister Jones Gahr Stoere who insisted that Norway will maintain its presence in Afghanistan despite the attack on his delegation in Kabul recently. 

Although the Norwegian visiting delegation cut short its visit after the attack but this did not mean the end of Norwegian commitments to Afghanistan. Norway’s stated objective is to promote stability, development and good governance in Afghanistan. ‘This is not a struggle we can win by military means alone. We can only succeed by promoting development through civilian efforts’ said the Norwegian Foreign Minister. 

Similar thought have been periodically expressed by most visiting Western leaders in one form or the other. Such assertions tend to generate an aura of optimism especially among the Western nations. However optimism alone is not sufficient as one cannot ignore the positive as well as adverse developments in Afghanistan and it is imperative that Western nations continuously remain vigilant and remain. 

It would not be out of place to suggest that the Western nations should also work towards sustaining the process that is continuously improving Pakistan-Afghanistan relations primarily because of the fact that Pakistan is not only extremely keen to see the advent of peace in Afghanistan  but is also a key country in the region. Afghanistan’s close links, in real terms with Pakistan, could facilitate the early advent of peace but this would entail that Pakistan’s sensitivities are given utmost respect by the Afghan authorities.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy research Institute.