Vajpayee's threat of resignation

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

This is not the first time that Vajpayee has offered to step down. Following the accusation by a Shiv Sena member of the Lok Sabha Sanjay Nirupam in August 2001 that prime minister's office was indulging in corrupt practices, Mr.Vajpayee threatened to resign. This time he deemed fit in his wisdom to quit over differences with the rightwing hawks of the coalition. The Vishwa Hindu Parishad has been campaigning that after the 15th March it would start construction of Ram temple at the site of the demolished Babri mosque. Does he really mean it? Is it another of the election ploys? These are the questions that need to be examined.

It is not an easy task to ascertain the real intentions of the Indian prime minister primarily because of his frequently issued contradictory statements. On one hand Mr.Vajpayee tends to promote an image of being a very reasonable and rational individual while on the other hand it vociferously claims to be a sevak of RSS-an extremist Hindu organization that even deemed fit to murder of the father of nation Mr.Gandhi. In his address to the Indian community while touring US during September 2000, Mr.Vajpayee stressed his preference of being the sevak of RSS first than being the Indian prime minister. He even went to the extend of emphasizing that the dreams of RSS India would have been realized had the BJP been able to secure two-third seats of the Lok Sabha.

On November 4, 2001 Mr.Vajpayee categorically stated in St.Pertersberg (Russia) that the greatest danger confronting the world in 21st century is the religious extremism. Reacting to this statement on the 6th Nov. 2002, one of India's leading journalist remarked in Sahara TV's programme known as 'Priti Din' that Vajpayee claims that religious extremism is the greatest danger confronting the humanity on one hand but if one review his government's record it becomes absolutely clear that he himself is deeply involved in the promotion of religious extremism on the other. Following the tragedy of 11th September 23 groups and organizations were banned in India but not a single one of the banned groups or organization that was linked with the Hindu extremism was among them.

As a matter of fact all the banned groups or organizations were linked with the Muslims, the Sikhs, the Christians, the tribal minorities of north-east, the communists and the naxalites. Judging by any yardstick groups like RSS, Bajrang Dal, Shiv Sena and VHP would easily qualify to be regarded as extremist organizations. No wonder leaders like Laloo Prashad Yadav have been demanding to ban Shiv Sena, VHP and RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh) stressing that if the Student Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) could be banned same should apply on these outfits also.

Addressing the minorities' convention in 1997, Mr.Vajpayee advised the Indian Muslims to demand equality of rights rather than dwelling on Babri mosque reconstruction. This statement clearly reflected the poverty of Indian claims to secularism on one hand and conveyed a message to the Hindu extremists that they have not done something wrong by demolishing the Babri mosque. Responding to the opposition's vociferous assertions of removal of ministers who were involved in the demolition of the Babri mosque on 6th December 2000 Mr.Vajpayee said that the demolition of the Babri mosque and the demand for the construction of Ram temple reflect national feelings of India. Speaking at an Iftar party on the same evening Mr.Vajpayee once again advised the Indian Muslims to seek an alternative site for the reconstruction of the Babri mosque. However few weeks afterward, Mr.Vajpayee advised in his articles that Hindus and the Muslims should respect each other's religious sentiments.

The list of contradictory statements is indeed long. But one need to recognize the fact that being a leader of BJP, he has to maintain a balance between the hawks and the moderates though the moderate element within BJP is known to be pretty weak. Besides, Mr.Vajpayee is heading an alliance government and there are many parties within the ruling alliance NDA that are against the construction of Ram mandir at the site of the demolished Babri mosque. As a matter of fact BJP's own agenda is no different than that of VHP and it wants the disputed site to be handed over to the Hindu militants enabling them to construct the temple. Being cognizant of the fact that construction of the temple is not on NDA's agenda, the ruling group feels constrained to support VHP's contention to build temple after 15th March.

An addition constraint impeding the construction of temple is that the issue is before the court and until the advent of a judicial decision the construction would amount to violating the law of the land. However it needs to be mentioned here that anticipating an adverse verdict VHP's president Ashok Singhal went even to the extent of stressing that VHP was not prepared to abide by any court decision. Perhaps that's why an eminent Indian analyst wrote that it is absolutely ludicrous for Indian government 'to talk to a body which says it will not obey the judicial verdict if it goes against it'.

Given his precarious position within the BJP as well as the leader of the ruling alliance, may be he has to indulge in contradictory stances with a view to keep everybody happy.
If one analyses his position in congruence with the dictates of coalition government, it is quite easily comprehensible that the hawkish elements within BJP needs to checked periodically. And if this element still persists on advancing its own agenda, extreme measures such as the threat of resignation or banning the group itself may be contemplated.

Equally potent would be the argument that Vajpayee owes his rise to the efforts of the hawkish elements within his own party and he cannot afford to ignore their aspirations as well as their nuisance value. A threat to resign seems to fit in the overall balancing techniques. However it needs to be stressed that frequent employment of such a technique could irreparably damage one's own image. Being conscious of the fact that his resignation could trigger off the disintegration of the ruling coalition, one can understand the employment of such techniques. In one sense it does seem that the threat of resignation is being employed as one of the crisis management technique. This, of course, could mean or interpreted that the threat of resignation is just one of the means to attain certain objectives.

The second or more plausible explanation seems to be that it could be viewed as a useful ploy within the context of UP elections. The threat of resignation is employed to generate feelings among the Muslim voters of UP that Mr.Vajpayee has rejected the VHP plan to start building the Ram temple after the 15th March. However it needs to be highlighted here that in September 2001, while talking to the leaders of VHP and other Hindu extremists leaders, Mr.Vajpayee had promised that some way would be found to begin the construction of Ram temple by 12th March 2002.

The state elections in UP, Punjab, Utteranchal and Manipur would be over by the end of this month. Whether or not BJP wins the elections especially in the UP, that Mr.Vajpayee would have two options to peruse; either to support the VHP's contention and allow the the construction of the temple or strictly support the legal aspects of the case meaning to hold the green light until the final legal judgment is given and then enforce the verdict. Allowing the law to take its course and supporting the judicial decision is unlikely to make Vajpayee popular with the members of the sang parivar but it may elicit support from many other quarters.

As far as the UP elections as well as the wooing of Muslim voters are concerned, I doubt it very much that BJP will make any major gains. Most of the Muslim voters are likely to vote for the Smajwadi. BJP does not enjoy the confidence of more than 2-3% of the total Muslim voters in UP. In addition to Smajwadi some Muslim voters are likely to vote for Bhaujan Smaj and Congress parties. The lowest number of Muslim votes would go to the BJP.

Cognizant of their weak position in UP elections, the BJP ideologue thought of capitalizing over anti-Pakistan sentiments. To cut its losses of Muslim votes, the BJP decided to use the current military confrontation with Pakistan in order to appeal to the Hindu voters' patriotism. Almost all campaign rallies of BJP have been carefully prepared with anti-Pakistan rhetoric's and warnings that only BJP is capable to counter the threat perceived to be posed by Islamic extremists.

Unless the ruling coalition disintegrates, Mr.Vajpayee is unlikely to be allowed to step down because Vajpayee's resignation would confront the ruling coalition with the complex choice of a leader who can command the respect of coalition partners. In the ultimate analysis it seems that the threat of resignation seems to work both ways. It unnerves many of the BJP's hawks as well as the coalition partners of NDA, which in a strange sense strengthen Mr.Vajpayee's position within BJP and NDA. Secondly, to project an image to the minorities especially the Muslims that you are taking a tough stance against the Hindu extremist could elicit some support.