The US strike threat

The POST, Sun, Jan,13, 2008.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

Once again stories are being published regarding the intended American strikes in Pakistani tribal areas. While theoretically interfering in the internal affairs of any country is not regarded appropriate even if circumstances may warrant such an action, yet it is a well known fact that the powerful nations invariably ignore the well established norms and opt for violation if the incumbent rulers are convinced that such an action is not only in their interests but also necessary. 

The latest story that has been mechanically churned out by the New York Times and republished in the local newspapers on the front pages revolves around active considerations of the Bush administration to expand Central Intelligence Agency’s authority in order to conduct far more aggressive covert operations in the tribal areas of Pakistan. The report cited many senior administration officials stressing that the ongoing debate was a response to intelligence reports that Al Qaeda and Taliban are intensifying efforts to destabilize the Pakistani government.

According to the report, many senior officials met at the White House to consider the situation and the proposal to expand authority of CIA but no decisions were taken. However they discussed various options including the above mentioned proposal. Several participants felt that the threat to President Musharraf’s government was acquiring threatening proportion and the country’s military leadership might grant more latitude to the Americans. 

The government of Pakistan has reportedly reacted angrily. ‘It is not up to the US administration, it is Pakistan’s government who is responsible for this country’ said the military spokesman Maj. Gen. Waheed Arshad. He further stated that ‘there are no overt or covert US operations inside Pakistan. Such reports are baseless and we reject them’. 

During last few months reports have been circulating that the Americans are worried about two developments in the area. One, many American believe that the Al Qaeda and their supporter Taliban have firmly established their safe havens in the tribal area. Second, many feel that the current situation that developed after the unfortunate assassination of the popular PPP leader Benazir Bhutto is drifting towards acutely unstable Pakistan which in turn is likely to endanger the safety of Pakistan’s nuclear assets. 

While it is true that no firm decision has been take to loosen control over CIA and allowing it to undertake covert operation in the Pakistani tribal areas, the discussion itself of such an eventuality is bound to encourage forces which believe that Pakistan is following American agenda. It has been abundantly and repeatedly made clear by government spokesmen that under no circumstances the Pakistani government is going to allow outsiders to undertake strikes in Pakistani areas. 

The questions that deserve probing revolve around why are the American officials; think tanks and the media are jointly or separately indulging in such discussions. Are they genuinely worried about nuclear assets falling into the wrong hands because of the current wave of instability inside the country? Are they worried about the consolidation of Al Qaeda’s alleged safe havens in the tribal areas? Are they trying to divert American public opinion from their own failed Afghan policy? 

As far as the threat of nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands is indeed worrisome eventuality. Not only it would reveal the inability of Pakistanis to look after their assets but it could endanger the entire region. There is no doubt in my mind that the weapons are well guarded and there is no question of falling into the wrong hands. Pakistan’s safety system is effective and one should not at all worry about this unnecessarily over projected eventuality. However if the Americans are worried about this, it would be far more appropriate to assist and help in further strengthening Pakistan’s safety and control system. 

As far as the question revolving the safe haven concept is concerned, all the Americans have to do is to share the intelligence information, if they have any, enabling the Pakistanis forces to undertake the necessary strikes. So far one hears a lot about safe havens of Al Qaeda but no concrete evidence has so far been provided. The entire argument ostensibly seems to have been built around the existence of sympathetic elements within the tribal areas of Pakistan. 

Since the Americans have the advantage of possessing sophisticated equipments to ascertain where exactly the Al-Qaeda is enjoying a safe haven and if they pass this information to Pakistani authorities, then the Pakistanis could take the necessary action. But if no information is made available to the Pakistani authorities and at the same times noises are made that Al-Qaeda has established safe havens, then it is not too far fetched to assume that it just another form of pressurization. 

It is a well established fact that American policies have utterly failed in both Iraq and Afghanistan.  By and large the Iraq war is considered by many all around the world as one of the most disastrous American adventure in history. While many Americans believe it was the product of top American officials, the reality is that even the Congress was equally involved. Very few voices were raised against it despite the warnings by many countries. 

The story of Afghanistan is no different. The Americans should ask themselves what went wrong and administer a rectifying injection instead of employing diversionary tactics. Not only the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have demonstrated incredible insensitivities to Muslim sentiments all around the world but the current policy of shifting blames on a third party is further igniting Muslim feelings. 

The discussion over possible strikes in Pakistan’s tribal area is increasingly viewed as a diversion by many in general and Pakistanis in particular. Many in Pakistan believe that the Americans appeared to be currently engaged in glossing over their inabilities in Afghanistan and hence find it convenient to shift the blame on the Pakistanis. 

Many Pakistanis also view that it is a form of pressurization which has twin objectives, to divert American public opinion especially because current electioneering for presidential elections and to put pressure on the government of Pakistan. Many Pakistanis including leading political parties do not view it favorably. The correct course of action was to undertake regular discussions with the Pakistani officials and suggesting more effective means to handle the situation. In addition, they need to make available all the essential tools deemed essential to improve the situation which could ward off their concerns. 

Compared to the Americans, the Pakistani response seemed far more appropriate which firmly rejected the introduction of foreign troops on Pakistani soil. What is welcomed by the Pakistanis is the sharing of intelligence indicating the exact location of safe havens and also equipment that can facilitate effective operations against the undesirable elements. While it is comprehensible that such discussions over various options do take place periodically, but what is difficult to understand is why these discussions are made public through inspired leaks.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy research Institute.