US Policy and Pakistan

The POST, Sun, July,23, 2006.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

The presence of a super power in any particular region is the product of dynamics of international developments. It could be viewed both with satisfaction if it supports the target country or it provides opportunity to generates apprehension if it is opting a course of action other than the desired one. Almost all significant developments at the international scene tend to influence smaller nations to adjust their policy pursuits to the emerging realities.

During the Cold War era a regional state's sense of insecurity introduced an outsider into the region which in turn was misinterpreted by its adversary as an attempt to tilt the incumbent power equilibrium to its own favor and thus causing the introduction of an outsider equalizer. Pakistan's acute sense of insecurity and helplessness that was primarily caused by colonial legacies compelled her to join the western sponsored alliance system which India interpreted as her attempt to upset the existing natural power hierarchy in the region. Consequently India introduced the Soviet Union into the region, thus making the regions as part of the ongoing Cold War struggle.

The post cold war era has been gradually witnessing transformation in US South Asia policy. The new American South Asian policy is also the product of radical transformation in the global environment. During the Cold War the political imperatives were governing the relations between the nations while the economic imperatives were relegated to a secondary position. The new post Cold War era has seen the reversal of governing imperatives.  However it needs to be mentioned that in case of South Asia the policy seems to be a combination of both economic and political imperatives.

The Bush administration’s South Asian policy revolves around ‘India First’ approach. While many in Pakistan view it as a major break from the past in which India was a dependable friend of the Soviets whereas Pakistan was a loyal American ally, it needs to be recalled that even during the Cold War the American efforts to befriend India never ceased. Some analyst even believe that the Americans were all the times using the Pakistanis to lure India out of the lap of the Soviets. A comparative analysis of the economic assistance given to India during the cold war era and the total assistance extended to Pakistan in the same period clearly point towards ‘option retention’ policy.  This is not surprising.  Almost all nations tend to work out a long list of favorable options.

Each nation has a right to adjust its policies in congruence with the dictates of its own national interests but the global powers also have responsibilities to promote peace and stability in conflict prone areas. No global power would be in a position to contribute towards peace unless it opts for a neutral and balanced approach. Perhaps that is why Americans have not been successful in securing peace in the Middle East or South Asia. Just as many supporters of India felt no hesitation to describe the American policy during the Cold War as unbalanced, there is no reason to believe that the current policy is balanced.  

What seems somewhat confusing for some analysts is why alienate Pakistan in order to cultivate India especially when many Americans acknowledge the massive contributions Pakistan is making in a war against terrorism.  During the cold war the American policy was to simultaneously strengthen strategic ties with Pakistan and to cultivate India despite the intense rivalry between the two South Asian nations. Yet Pakistan demonstrated a remarkable degree of loyalty and dependability and rarely questioned America’s India policy even when it was directly impinging upon its own interests. Ignoring the established record of friendship, the pursuit of ‘India First’ policy amounts to what some would like to call reconciliation with the emerging realities.

However there are others who see contradictory duality in American South Asian policy. For instance a soft US approach towards sanction imposed on India following nuclear explosions but much harder attitude towards Pakistan gave birth to misgivings.  Is it a repetition of what the American pursued and called ‘an even handed policy’ following the outbreak of 1965 Indo-Pak war when they imposed arms embargo? According to many western countries’ perceptions and strong advocates of non-proliferation both India and Pakistan had committed the same crime and deserved same punishment in terms of sanctions. But the new American policy generate the feelings that the punishment for India would be much milder and would soon be reduced whereas the one imposed on Pakistan would continue to remain harder and may last much longer. The signing of recent nuclear deal with India which implicitly recognizes India as a nuclear weapon state even at the cost of destroying the NPT regime and not considering Pakistan for similar treatment clearly reflects a heavy tilt in favor of India.

Shifting perceptions of global and regional interests coupled with negligible emphasis on former friends needs and aspirations seem to be the hallmark of new American policies. Friends of Cold War era are no longer suitable in the post Cold War period. While one can easily comprehend that the emerging realities might dictate the change of horses, but to jeopardize the interest of former friends and allies so quickly in order to accommodate the radically changed interests reflect certain amount of shortsightedness. Not only to promote friendship at the cost of another friend effectively impedes the advent of a sound and lasting relationships but also continuously takes a heavy tool of a country’s image.

The recent trip of US by Pakistani Foreign Minister though reflects a relatively positive attitude of the American incumbent administration but does not satisfy many Pakistanis. Discussion seems to have revolved around three major issues, the Afghan situation, the Kashmir conflict and the sale of F-16 to Pakistan. The Pakistani Foreign Minister appears to be very optimistic about the supply of F-16 to Pakistan which would include18 new aircrafts with the option to buy another 18. The US administration has already notified its intention to sell the aircrafts to its Congress and is hopeful about its early passage. However it may not be out order to mention here that there are some members of Congress who have expressed their concerns like the possible supply of F-16 technology to China. Besides, one should not overlook the hard work Indian lobbies do in order to block any sale of arms to Pakistan. Indeed it is up to the American see that the existing imbalance is not further widened. The more the gap between the conventional weapons of India and Pakistan increases, the more chances of greater reliance upon nuclear capability.

On Kashmir the American appeared to be somewhat inclined to support the Indian viewpoint. Despite having committed itself to make concerted efforts and influence the involved parties to move towards its resolution, one does not see tangible efforts by the Americans. Admittedly they encourage both parties to talk but beyond this nothing concrete is visible. As far as Afghanistan is concerned, the American has not yet put concerted pressures on Afghan leaders to avoid the blame game. Both Karazai and Rangeen hardly think before vomiting their poison against Pakistan. Ostensibly Pakistani Foreign Minister has reportedly given some suggestions to improve Pak-Afghan relations. The Afghan administration appears to be more treading on path which to many Pakistanis seemed to have been chartered more by the Indians than the Americans.  

Cognizant of US importance as the sole super power in the post Cold War era, Pakistan has been continuously demonstrating willingness to cooperate with Washington as far possible within the operative regional constraints. The Americans also need to reciprocate positive gestures with constructive engagements. Mere patchwork would neither pay desired dividends nor last long. Not only the American India policy but the quick acceptance of Kabul’s interpretation of deteriorating situation in Afghanistan is already taking a heavy toll of whatever goodwill is left among the Pakistanis.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy Research Institute.