Unrealistic apprehensions

Pakistan OBSERVER, Wed, Dec,26, 2007.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema
 

The American media has been publishing, almost regularly, news and articles revolving around poor security of nuclear assets in Pakistan. What is perhaps most interesting that neither of the article is based on convincing evidence. Dabbling into conjectures and rumors appear to have become the hall mark of such stories. However such stories tend to influence minds of many ignorant and even unconcerned individuals all around the world. In this connection, two questions need to be probed in order to ascertain the real situation. These questions are how safe are Pakistan’s nuclear assets and what is the rationale of such stories that keep appearing in the western media? 

In a recent television interview India’s National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan said that not only the Pakistani nuclear assets are safely guarded making it extremely difficult to fall into the wrong hands but it is extremely difficult for any outside elements to walk away with nuclear device. Besides, it is not easy for a couple of people to manage a nuclear device. He stressed that the possibility of these weapons falling into the hands of radicals is extremely remote. The statement by Mr. Narayanan should be an eye opener for the American media men. If there was a country that should be most concerned about such a dreaded eventuality, it would be India. If the Indian authorities can express confidence in Pakistani mechanism of security for their nuclear assets, there is no reason for others to be so overtly concerned and keep churning out unnecessary apprehensions in one form or the other. The primary source of western worries are either these assets fall into wrong hand or the Islamic radicals take over the government as a result of elections or collapse of the government. Neither of these concerns is justifiable. The argument is usually based on the reports revealing that two retired Pakistani scientists had met Osama. Both scientists have categorically denied that any sensitive information was divulged. Another aspect of this argument revolves around A.Q. Khan’s actions. Admittedly Dr. Khan was given a remarkable degree of autonomy and his activities were overlooked because of the importance of his work for national security. His contributions made Dr. Khan a popular man and he began to enjoy a status of a hero. Yet once government of Pakistan discovered his illicit activities, it took appropriate action against him. The government even passed legislation to effectively check nuclear commerce. There is hardly any other nation in the world that has such legislation. 

The second source of apprehensions revolves around the argument that the radicals would win the election and come into power. Nothing could be more ludicrous. To stress those radicals would win the elections and come to power amounts to reflect complete ignorance about the country and society. What to talk about religious radicals coming to power, the past history have amply proved that even the moderate religious parties have never been able to secure sufficient votes to contemplate entering the corridors of power. 

The vote-bank of religious parties has varied between 4 to 8 percent of the total polled votes in the past. It was only the last election in which united religious parties group was able to muster little over 11 percent of the total votes and that too was the product American policy pursuits. It was the indiscriminate bombing of Tora Bora that generated a strong sympathy wave upon which the religious parties were able to capitalize. It is ridiculous to think that they can win sufficient votes in the coming elections in order to form a government. All the current indicators are pointing towards reduced number of seats of the religious parties this time. 

While number of Pakistani weapons and the size of its fissile material stockpiles are completely unknown, many steps deemed to be essential for the security of nuclear assets are well placed. Not only the National Command Authority is well established but security and safety of the assets are in safe hands. While Pakistan is capable to deliver its nuclear weapons either by aircrafts or indigenously built missiles, the weapons are believed to be kept separate from their delivery system with the nuclear cores removed from the detonators. Besides Pakistan, like the other nuclear weapon states, follows a two-man rule to authenticate the codes that call for the release of the weapons. The transportation of nuclear material is indeed relatively considered to be more difficult to protect. Not only Pakistan has already ratified the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM) but is engaged in securing specialized vehicles to further strengthen transportation security. Indeed in this regard the help and assistance by the international community is sought. Besides the PRP( Personnel Reliability Program) is fairly advanced. The program covers all persons working in sensitive areas relating to nuclear system. 

If we take into considerations the few safety elements that are above mentioned, one can be assured that not only the command and control system of Pakistani nuclear asset is good but the safety measures that are in place are no less effective than those employed by other nuclear weapon states. As far as the technical aspects of control and safety are concerned it is almost fool proof. The western media in general and the American media in particular frequently refer to troubles in FATA and the creeping expansionism of radicals in few settled areas. It needs to be mentioned here that the Pakistan army has already successfully cleared almost the whole of Swat with few pockets where the miscreants are still operating. But these elements while retreating use the Afghan territory where they are not just protected by foreign and sympathetic elements. It is interesting to stress here that the western media almost regularly either deliberately or inadvertently fail to mention this aspect. 

Excessive sermonization along with frequent publication of stories aimed at pressurization is having negative impact which in turn can take a heavy toll of the existing good will. Already many analysts and observers are raising questions like ‘What right the Americans have to doubt our ability to protect our nuclear assets? ‘Why is the US worried about Pakistani nukes and who has given them right to interfere in our internal affairs?’ In some circles Iranian President is now admired for having stood up to American policy of maligning Iran. They are beginning to stress that the Americans have right to lecture the Pakistanis. Instead they should worry about their own nuclear assets. In one article it was mentioned that after all it was in August this year that an American B52 bomber carrying cruise missiles took on a usual flight without the knowledge of US officials. Should we worry about the American safety system, is one of the questions asked here. 

Indeed one should be reasonably assured that there is no danger to Pakistani nuclear assets. They are in safe hands and there is no need to express over and over again unnecessary apprehensions unless the main objective of these stories is to cove r one’s own incompetence in Afghanistan and to put pressure on Pakistan for some other objectives.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy research Institute.