Taliban 'spring offensive'?

The POST, Sun, Apr,20, 2008.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

With the advent of spring, a number of contradicting reports emanating from Afghanistan are indicating that there is going to be a Taliban spring offensive. It is alleged that Taliban fighters are filtering back from their winter shelters with their Kalashnikovs and rocket launchers and are traveling in pairs or small groups on their motorbikes and dusty pickups. ‘Every day we see more and more of them’ said a local former.

Based on few eye witnesses accounts that they have seen many Taliban fighters traveling to various destinations inside Afghanistan, it has been assumed that there is going to be a spring offensive of the Taliban. The visibility of Taliban has given birth to rumors that they are gearing up for a spring offensive.

It needs to be mentioned here that it not only the Taliban who are allege to be gearing up for some kind offensive, reports are also generating the impression that NATO led ISAF is also preparing itself to face this augured offensive. Not only the arrival of 2300 US marines who have joined country’s main NATO base outside the city of Kandahar over the last two months was welcomed by the Commanders but also the accompanying fire-power has certainly injected the much need confidence. The presence of newly arrived marines would indeed bolster the moral of British, Canadian and Dutch troops who have been bearing the main brunt of fighting in the southern parts of Afghanistan.

The last NATO summit was dominated by discussion over Afghanistan and the need to send more troops to fight in Afghanistan. Not only President Bush committed to send more troops but also urged the other member countries to send troops to join the NATO force in Afghanistan. Earlier the American field commanders have been sending urgent requests to Defense Secretary Gates in anticipation of augured spring offensive of the Taliban.

Interestingly having secured the much desired increase in numbers and strong infusion of more fire-power, Carlo Branco, spokesperson of the alliance forces, reportedly stated in a press conference in Afghan defense ministry that the likely launching of ‘spring offensive’ is nothing more than a propaganda ploy. ‘There is no insurgent’s spring offensive. The initiative is at the hands of Afghan national Army and ISAF’, Branco stressed.

While it is also stated that the augured spring offensive may be an excuse to secure the desired increase in the troops, the recent surveys in Afghanistan clearly reflect increasing support for the foreign troops’ presence in Afghanistan. But it needs to be mentioned here that it is often stated that the people of Afghanistan are not in favor of long term presence of foreign troops but they do recognize the need for short term presence. However the incumbent Afghan regime feels that withdrawal of foreign troops would indeed be catastrophic particularly at this stage of mission against the extremists.

Ever since the operation enduring freedom was started in Afghanistan by the Americans to oust the then incumbent regime of Taliban, one question has always troubled many analysts which revolves around comparative American efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is often asked that why the American stationed the minimum forces in Afghanistan which is much larger than Iraq whereas the force stationed in Iraq was eight times more than what was stationed in Afghanistan initially. The current ratio of forces is also lopsided. While Afghanistan has around 40,000 to 50,000 (Both ISAF and NATO forces), the American forces in Iraq are more than 150,000.

Given the enormity of the territory and ability of Taliban to bounce back, it is now being realized that increase in forces, especially the combat forces, is absolutely imperative. Perhaps that is why both the President Bush and Defense Secretary are ceaselessly engaged to convince the other partners to increase their troops. They have met some successes in this pursuit. Some countries like France pledged to nearly double their forces in Afghanistan.

Perhaps the most important development has been the realization, though late in many ways, of acute need to have Pakistan on board. For a long time Afghanistan indulged in the blame game and kept on insisting that Pakistan has to do more whereas it successfully managed to divert the attention of American and other supporters from its own internal mess. Pakistan, on the other hand, kept on highlighting the need to focus inward and try to secure a desired minimal level of stability in Afghanistan.

It is an interesting omen that the important officials of NATO countries have at last begun to recognize the importance of having Pakistan on board and not just take the Afghan interpretation as gospel truth. In a recent statement the French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner openly recognized that for effective dealing with Taliban, the help from Pakistan is extremely important.

Not only the French Foreign Minister highlighted the need for military means but also stressed the need for a regional view. Admittedly the relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been tense primarily because of Afghan’s inability to effectively secure internal stability along with its excessive indulgence in blame game, the relations are currently demonstrating an upward trend especially after the convening of Loi Jirga in Kabul.

Recently established contact centres on the border are likely to play an important role in stabilizing the situation around Durand Line as the contact between the officials is going to be on daily basis. The close cooperation between Afghan, Pakistani and NATO officials could turn out to be a much needed panacea provided they honestly and sincerely cooperate with each other and scrupulously refrain from blame game. Not only the wind from over blown notions like augured Taliban’s spring offensive can be easily taken out but also a strong message of cooperative endeavor could inject discouragement among adversary’s ranks.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy research Institute.