The new emerging order

The POST, Sun, Jun,29, 2008.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

Generally order is considered to be a controversial concept and perhaps that is why there exists no scholarly consensus concerning what constitutes order, how it is best maintained, how it relates to justice and whether the present international political system is orderly? Many scholars argue that balance of power; diplomacy, collective security or alliances provide the best methods of maintaining order. However there are others who give much credit to the role of international institutions in developing mutually accepted norms and rules of conduct. There are still others who describe order as nothing more than institutionalized injustice. It is possible to have patterned relationships between actors that sustain just and an unjust order. Many writers have argued that this is precisely the problem with the contemporary international order while others argue that order must always take priority over justice because it is a pre condition for the realization of all other values. . Perhaps the most important essentials of a system are Stability, Flexibility and Durability.

Order may mean a particular stable condition of a system or it may refer to the whole of system itself. In more specific terms it means political life that is stable and predictable. This, of course, does not mean that change is absent but it implies orderly change is preferred compared to disruptive and uncontrolled change in international system.

Since the 17th Century, the main actors in the international political system (IPS) have been independent sovereign states. However it needs to be asserted here that IPS has been constantly undergoing periodic transformation. Various phases of global order’s transformation have been witnessed since the 17th Century including Classical period (1648-1815), the age of nationalism (1815-1914), world between the two world wars (1919-1945) and the Cold war (1945-1989). The current phase has been dominated what is called a unipolar world. However there are signs indicating that unipolarity is gradually giving way to the augured advent of multipolar world.

After the end of the Cold war the focus of global power is steadily but surely shifting from West to East. Asia- Pacific symbolized by newly rising economic and military powers of the region i.e. China and India with each having more than one billion population and constituting two thirds of world population are emerging as economic powerhouses. Some claim that 21st century is going to be an “Asian century” or more appropriately called as “Chindia” as both powers have dramatically changed the regional and global political landscape.

The new emerging configuration of power and influence poses challenges and opportunities as history has shown that major shifts in powers balance could generate both positive as well as negative consequences. Of the various changes marking the new Asian strategic landscape, none stands out more than China’s emergence as a leading power in Asia. China’s accelerated economic growth along with demonstrated military restrain and skillful diplomacy is causing rapid extension in Chinese influence.

China’s economy is growing at 9 per cent and India’s at nearly 8 per cent. It is said that with the current trend in Chinese economics it could double the size of Germany by 2010 and overtake Japan, currently the world’s largest by 2020. On the other hand, if India sustains a 6 per cent growth for 50 years, which is plausible according to some analysts, it could even overtake China. China’s rapid growth no doubt has its problems: internal migration, rich- poor divide, unemployment, inflation, shortage of water, oil and energy resources environmental degradation and rising pollution. Yet the leadership is fully cognizant of these difficulties and is trying to deal with the situation towards an economy with capitalist features in a socialist oriented polity.

Today, China’s sustained economic growth helps world economy. The economies of East Asian Countries and Japan have marked a significant rise because of China’s growth. There is going to be similar impact on the economies of South Asian e under the shadow of rising China. Hence everybody has a stake in China’s continued growth and economic and political stability.

India, in its quarter century of reforms has had a phenomenal trajectory of economic growth. Its principal economic strength is thriving software and business service industries which provide synergy to western businesses and other developed countries. Concerted reforms have propelled India into a big league of nations although it remains a poor country. Likewise, ASEAN if they form a monetary union could also contribute to Asia’s growth and hence economic rise.

India is still enmeshed in South Asia region and has to sort out its problems with immediate neighbors whereas China has already resolved it border problems with all of its neighbors. Lacking in innovative approaches, India still appears to believe in terms of imposing its own solutions to regional entanglements. Unless and until the regional problems are resolved to the satisfactions of all concerned, India is unlikely to emerge as world player. However this does not mean that India does not have the capacity to play role of a leading Asian power.

With Pakistan, Kashmir dispute lingers on despite the ongoing peace process is making impressive strides, particularly in the area of CBMs. Similarly India’s problems with smaller neighbors such as Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are far from cordial and easy. Resolution of problems with neighbors could facilitate greatly for India’s cherished global role.

Despite the inbuilt difficulties of the these two Asian giants, the rise of economic powerhouses of India and China is shifting the centre of gravity to Asia-pacific region and posing challenge to West. However, the military and economic linkages of the West with Japan and South Korea and Australia remain strong. The rise of China in the Asia-Pacific region does not pose any threat to the existing balance of power that is stable and still in favor of the United States; but the balance of influence is turning toward China. It does not mean a decline in the absolute influence of the United States in the region. But the US influence in relative terms to China is declining. In terms of military power and the economic strength, the United States is likely to remain the most powerful country in the region.

The rise of China and India, though viewed as positive developments in the global system, might take a period of decade to make their impact. There is no gainsaying that a transition in the locus of exclusive power from the US is indeed taking shape in strong EU and invigorated Asia-Pacific. The forthcoming Olympics in Beijing are a notable event that will demonstrate China’s spectacular economic development and raise its profile further in the international community.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy research Institute.