Timeframe for resolving Kashmir

The POST, Sun, Jun,10, 2007.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

Once again the India has stressed that no timeframe for resolving the ongoing Kashmir dispute can be considered. Addressing the concluding session of the two day seminar on ‘Towards South Asian Unity’ at Simla, the Indian Defense Minister Parnab Mukerjee did not mince words in stressing that India cannot give a timeframe on the Kashmir solution adding that India and Pakistan are holding discussions on various outstanding issues within the frame work of the composite dialogue process. 

This is not the first time that Mr. Mukerjee reflected his hard line approach to issues relating to Pakistan. His reference to the engagement of security forces in maintaining law and order and restoring normalcy in Kashmir does not surprise any one in Pakistan. While almost all the neutral observers and even some realistic Indians acknowledged the drastic reduction in cross border infiltrations, he appeared to be far from convinced and kept on churning out statements reflecting that no reduction has taken place. 

What appears to be interesting revolves around his stress to speed up the peace process and liberalization of visa regime. He stressed that there should be regular interaction among parliamentarians, journalists and representatives of civil society from SAARC countries as they truly represent the public opinion. He added that India has decided to open up its borders with underdeveloped countries of SAARC to boost their economies. 

A close scrutiny of the India-Pakistan peace process clearly reveals that Indian leadership is only focusing on three areas of the process while underplaying all other issues. Mr. Mukerjee’s address once again reinforced the nation that India is only interested in three areas which are people to people contact, confidence building measures (CBM) and increased trading interaction. 

Mr. Mukerjee’s stress on visa liberalization facilitates increasing people to people contact. Already major strides have been made in this direction. Not only the number of visas issued in a day have increased manifold but efforts to open consulates in Karachi and Mumbai are well underway. In terms of transport linkages, many new trains and buses started plying. The opening of new routes and links are being subjected to serious considerations. All these developments facilitate and promote people to people contacts. 

Similarly one frequently comes across assertions by many Indian leaders to introduce more and more CBMs. There is no doubt that the introduction of CBMs certainly improve the atmosphere and enables the two parties to discuss the issues and disputes in an amicable atmosphere but the CBMs rarely resolve a dispute. It prepares grounds for the parties involved to explore and discuss all alternatives. 

Third area on the Indian list is the trade. Admittedly the trade between India and Pakistan has considerably increased but it is still far below the anticipated potential of the two countries. It is a well known fact that the illegal trade likes smuggling and indirect trade via third country is far more than the trade through legal channels. Although ever since the peace process started the legal trade has also been steadily increasing and many new items have been introduced for enhanced trading interaction. However it needs to be mentioned that trading potential is well recognized by both countries. It is believed that with few years the trading interaction will cross five billion marks.

Compared to Indian preference for the above mentioned areas, Pakistan has been urging India to move quickly on conflict resolution side. All the outstanding disputes continue to remain unresolved. At time the expectations are raised that both the Siachin and Sir Creek disputes are about to be resolved yet one finds that even after the passage of fourth round no agreement has been signed. As a matter of fact none of the outstanding disputes has actually been resolved though at the end of each meeting a short statement reflecting that some progress has been made are regularly issued. 

It has been generally acknowledged by both outsiders as well as insiders that the Kashmir dispute is the most complicated one which may require concerted and sincere efforts to take it to its logical conclusion. Over the years many complications have either been deliberately introduced or inadvertently crept into it. Periodically it has been suggested that a complex dispute like Kashmir require an innovative approach producing an out of the box solution. 

Undoubtedly the idea of timeframe for resolving the Kashmir dispute deserves to be seriously considered by both India and Pakistan. Many reasons accounts for this assertion. First, the most important aspect of international politics is its dynamic nature. Things keep changing periodically and it cannot be ruled that some unexpected development at the global level may adversely impact upon the ongoing peace process which in turn could arrest the process. 

Second, the dispute is already almost sixty years old and the realization to get out of the clutches of this dispute is rapidly increasing. It could be the product of what is known as a fatigue syndrome or increased realization of changed world. Not only the cold war is over but the also the ascendancy of market forces are influencing even the inflexible decision makers to take cognizance of the changed environment. 

Third, compared to the Indians and Pakistanis the indigenous Kashmiri population has sacrificed enormously. It is now difficult for the international community to ignore their sufferings. The blatant human rights violations by the Indian security forces are not just scrupulously recorded but the human rights watch organizations are actively focusing on the Kashmir situation. The voice of the Kashmiri people is being increasingly recognized despite the Indian arrogance and denials. 

Fourth, ever since India and Pakistan have acquired nuclear weapons capabilities, the international community not only get scared from the fear of possible first nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan over Kashmir but also began to take a sustained interested in main cause of India-Pakistan hostilities.  For years they bought the Indian interpretation of the dispute and ignored the pleas of suffering Kashmiri people but after the nuclearization of India and Pakistan the international community began to apply pressures in order to encourage both parties to seriously seek out an acceptable solution of the dispute. 

Finally, the advent of peace process after the successful 12^th SAARC Summit created an atmosphere in which not just outsiders but also the insiders began to seriously contemplate the likelihood of an agreed solution. Now after the passage of fourth round the hopeful signs are beginning to disappear. The optimism that was generated by the peace process along a network of CBMs is gradually being replaced by pessimistic vibes and the people are beginning to question the efficacy of the process especially with regard to its ability to resolve the ongoing Kashmir dispute. 

The question that is being asked now is that if the two countries are unable to make any visible progress on the Kashmir dispute when the atmosphere has vastly improved and people to people contact has already made commendable strides, then how can one expect progress if the downward slide begin which could be caused by any major adverse development in the region. The timeframe for Kashmir dispute could rekindle the dwindling hopes and arrest the downward slide of aspirations.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy research Institute.