Tension Generating Sources of South Asia

The News, Sun, December,5, 2004.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema


South Asia is a peculiar region in many ways. It is an area where one witnesses simultaneous acknowledgement of operational complimentarity of interests as well as the existence of conflicting interests. That may be the reason why love-hate relationships frequently manifest in one form or the other. At the declaratory level most leaders of the region have repeatedly asserted their utmost desire to work for peace but at the practical level the efforts have been viewed with suspicions and cynicism. Since the roots of security problems are indigenous (both domestic and regional), the threat perceptions are sufficiently diverse to preclude a common approach. For India the major sources of external threats are China and Pakistan despite the march of normalization processes and the advent of regional organization. Similarly for Pakistan and to a lesser degree for Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and even Nepal the main threat emanates from Indian policy pursuits. The Indian threat perceptions also include threats originating from outside the region.

Four major sources of tension have contributed considerably towards the perception formulation of regional states; tension generated by the emergence of asymmetrical power balance after British departure, tension caused by regional conflicts, tension produced by linkage between the insiders and the interested outsiders; and tension caused by domestic development and the emerging new threats such as the religious militancy, sectarianism, ethnicity terrorism etc.

Undoubtedly, the South Asians regional perceptions have been, and in many ways still continue to be, greatly influenced by the unbalanced and asymmetric power structure that emerged after the departure of the British. The tyranny of geography manifested itself in such a way that while almost all the regional states acquired common border with India, they do not enjoy physical proximity among themselves. India is situated right in the middle of the region, blessed with large territory, massive population, endowed with enormous resources, and over the years it has built an impressive military machine. The towering Indian position in the region coupled with India’s assertion to secure recognition and respect for its policies and its desire to establish a natural hierarchy or as many often refer to it as hegemony within the region generate apprehensions among the regional neighbours.

The tension generated by outsider’s involvement is likely to reduce. The constructive engagements of great powers could cause total elimination of tensions that are often credited to their presence. A great power’s involvement in any region of the world is primarily caused by two major reasons; either to meet its global responsibilities or to serve its own interests in the given region. The involvement of the great powers during the Cold War was the product of their global objectives and South Asia was no exception to this general trend. During the Cold War the Americans perceived threats from the Communist world and were feverishly engaged in enlisting players, friends and supporters for their own team. 

The local states that opted to join the Cold War alliance system were more influenced by regional compulsions and domestic reasons. 

Following the death of the Cold War, the tragic events of 9/11, and the initiation of war against terrorism, the policies of great power changed and appear to be more akin to what is called partnerships with a select group of nations.

As far as the tension caused by the regional conflicts is concerned, the South Asians will have to grow up and demonstrate maturity in resolving their regional disputes. Among the regional conflict, the most important one has been the conflictual cobweb surrounding Indian-Pakistani relations.  A good beginning was made when Hizb-ul-Mujahideen offered a cease fire in July-Aug.2000, which started a chain of events all aimed towards resolution of the ongoing Kashmir dispute. Admittedly the process was interrupted by events like the attack on Indian Parliament and India’s consequent action of massive concentration of its forces on Pakistani border invoking somewhat similar reaction from the Pakistani side. The forces of the two countries faced eye ball to eye ball for more than ten months. Eventually the Indians decided to withdraw. On April 18, 2003 the Indian Prime Minister offered to talk on contentious bilateral issues. This offer initiated a chain of positive developments which led to the normalisation of diplomatic relations, restoration of communication and transportation links, successful conclusion of 12^th SAARC Summit, and the initiation of the much awaited dialogue on Indo-Pak contentious issues.

Periodic pressures emanating from internal dynamics confronting them with ugly realities of realpolitik influencing them either to accelerate efforts to seek resolutions of the outstanding disputes/issues or face multiplied complex problems. The externalization of periodic internal problems could provide temporary relief, but in essence it would further complicate the existing complex problems deserving even more careful handling.

If South Asians did not pay heed to the dictates of time, they are likely to be left behind. A major war in the region could cause havoc (because of the likely deployment of nuclear weapons) and destroy the region. It is not just the question of retardation of growth, it would be total destruction. Even if the nuclear weapons are not employed, the war would destroy the carefully groomed SAARC, retard growth, provide extreme disincentives for the foreign investors causing their flight, and pave the grounds for increased religious militancy, ethnicity, sectarianism, drug trafficking and terrorism to acquire uncontrollable proportions.

The fourth source of tension is rooted in domestic developments and consequential policy pursuits. South Asia is a region that is blessed with a great diversity of religions and cultures. The long history of South Asia clearly indicates that almost all the great religions managed to gain some sort of foothold in South Asia. For years these religions continued to live side by side peacefully. However with the arrival of British, one begin to experience tensions among the followers of various religions. All religions suggest a code aimed to provide a divine source of strength and to improve the human behaviour. However when the notion of imposition gains grounds, irritants is born which in turn tends to lead to conflictual situations. A simple glance at history of South Asia clearly depict that while the differences continued to be aired periodically but the religious conflict remained dormant and never acquired dangerous proportion where the state security was really jeopardized.

Admittedly the threats to regional security emanate from a combination of local, regional and global factors but in recent times new sources of tension and threats have surfaced. Not only sectarianism intensified but ethnic violence has also generated tensions within South Asian societies. In addition, the emergence of terrorism has made the situation even more complicated for South Asian societies.  A uni-focal western approach to tackle terrorism has further injected acute complications. While the adopted policy-pursuit is heavily based on military approach, not much has been done to deal with disputes like the Kashmir or Palestine. Apart from military approach, the focus of pursuit should have been the erosion of causes of terrorism which includes injustice, denial, and deprivation, economic and social inequalities.

 
The writer works for Islamabad Policy Research Institute.