Stand-off over Iranian N-plan

The POST, Sun, Jun,08, 2008.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

While some western countries along with Israel continue to pressurize Iran through UN and IAEA to have their nuclear program suspended, the Iranian have repeatedly expressed their determination to continue their current nuclear policy and would not bow down to western pressures. ‘The Iranian people will not back down an inch over their right to nuclear energy’, forcefully stated by President Ahmadinejad while addressing a huge crowd packed into Azadi square in Central Tehran back in February this year.

Somewhat similar thoughts have been recently expressed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who categorically ruled out that Iran would halt its nuclear program. ‘Iran is not after nuclear weapons. It is after peacefully using nuclear energy.. We will follow this path and will reach it’. ‘Today no logical person or official go after nuclear weapons. The Iranian nation opposes these kinds of weapons’, said the supreme leader.

Addressing a huge crowd at he shrine of respected leader late Khomeini, Ayatollah Khamenei categorically stated that nuclear weapons do not bring a nation any power because it cannot be used. He further stressed that Iran would stand up to US ‘bullying’.
Referring to the western policies, he said ‘the way they talk is like psychos talk. Sometimes they make threats, sometimes they give the order for terror, sometimes they ask for help because they are helpless and sometimes they make accusations’.

A simple glance at the western policies towards Iran’s nuclear pursuits clearly indicates the state of helplessness and frustration which in turn results into coercive approaches. The strategies of both reward and punishments are employed periodically. Neither strategy has produced the desired dividends.

A third course of action is also available and is viewed by many that it may result in some form of resolution of the ongoing complex issue. What is required initially is to recognize and respect the sovereign right of every nation to take decision and develop policies which it deems best for its national interests. Instead of readily believing what some anti-Iran American propagandists project and what Israel has been arguing that Iran is making the nuclear weapons and therefore a punitive approach must be adopted against Iran, why not, for a change, initiate a dialogue with Iran without any precondition.

The strategy of pressurization and coercion rarely produce desired results. Admittedly such approaches may be able to influence a small weak power but a power like Iran which is blessed with enormous energy resources, dictation is likely to produce exactly the opposite result.

Some of major powers like Russia enjoy considerable influence over Iran which can be asked by other powers to take the lead and initiate a rational dialogue with Iran. Given the existing standoff, it is only logical to convince Iran through a sustained dialogue. Threatening speeches or application of pressures through IAEA and UN are unlikely to convince Iran to abandon its nuclear pursuits. On the contrary such an approach could only further help in the hardening of Iranian attitudes.

Iran has repeatedly stressed that it is not making the bomb which many in the west-perhaps under Israeli propaganda-are not willing to accept Iranian assertions. Not only Iran is a member of NPT and so far it has not been proven that it is making the bomb but also it would only be appropriate to engage Iran in a sustained dialogue and refrain from issuing period threats.

Recently the IAEA demonstrated serious concerns over intelligence reports of secret Iranian research into nuclear warheads. The IAEA Chief El Baradei has accused Iran in his latest report of withholding key information that could shed light on the alleged studies including research, engineering work and testing with a possibly military dimension. It is also stated that intelligence has been backed by ten different countries.

Iran has dismissed the latest accusation stressing that intelligence report is fake and fabricated. Iranians believe that IAEA could have given better report but because of the continuing pressure of Tehran’s known western foes it did not give a more realistic and authentic report. However this has not satisfied many important European countries including Britain, France and Germany. They are saying that Iran should supply all the necessary information as well as access to people, documents and sites requested by the IAEA.

Given the existing lack of trust between Iran and the IAEA, Iran is unlikely to comply with the wishes of IAEA and EU. What the US, EU and IAEA need to understand at this stage is that to dismiss Iranian supreme religious leader’s categorical denial that Iran is not making the nuclear weapon is likely to create more impediments than paving the way for eventual resolution of the issue. After all it is a known fact that the final arbiter on Iranian policies is the supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

Perhaps it would be appropriate to respect supreme leader’s assertions and give the benefits of doubt to Iran. As the IAEA has so far failed to come up with concrete and convincing proof that Iran is making the bomb, the entire case against Iran seems to have been based on assumptions, propaganda, and piecing together some not so solid pieces of evidence.

While it is well known fact that US and Israel are pushing their European partners for a new round of UN sanctions in order to put more pressure on Iran, perhaps the more attractive course of action is what the American presidential hopeful Barak Obama calls ‘the engagement’.

Iran’s consistent assertion to continue its peaceful nuclear program reflects its efforts to defend its sovereign right to undertake any policy which it deems fit for the country. Given the Israeli record of flouting the UN resolutions, continuous committing atrocities against the Palestinians, acquisition of unannounced nuclear weapons, it becomes somewhat incredible to criticize Iranian indulgence in efforts to acquire nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy research Institute.