Resolve to move forward

The POST, Sun, May,25, 2008.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

In a recent meeting both the Indian and Pakistani foreign ministers not only reviewed the progress made during the fourth round of composite dialogue and set the tone for the fifth round but also demonstrated their resolve to carry the peace process forward despite the difficulties. Reading through the text of joint statement, one is certainly reassured that the two sides appeared to be determined to move forward.

Not only the two sides inked an agreement to allow consular access to the prisoners of either countries held across the borders but the two foreign ministers in their latest meeting expressed their resolve to fight the common menace of terrorism. In this connection the joint anti terror mechanism would be activated in order to avoid or minimize the adverse impact on the growing ties between India and Pakistan.

It needs to be stressed here that the smooth working of joint mechanism entails a reasonable level of trust between the parties. To build the trust one has to shed the habit of instant accusation. There is no denying of the fact that our past is studded with examples when one side immediately leveled allegations against the other without even undertaking the requisite investigation. Many examples exist when charges were leveled against the other which were later proven to be absolutely incorrect and baseless.

The newspaper reports indicate that both sides have agreed to refrain from hostile propaganda. It is indeed a good omen provided this expression is actually translated into reality. Invariably the knee jerk reactions produced allegations against the other party which, in turn, invoked somewhat similar reaction or prompted denial by the other side. A quick allegation may be able to dampen anger feelings among certain group of people but it invariably damages the existing trust.

Once again both sides have expressed to introduce more confidence building measures (CBM) including Kashmir related CBMs. CBMs tend to improve atmosphere and enables the parties to subject even the most complex problems to discussions. CBMs by themselves resolve disputes. Indeed there is no doubt that a large network of CBMs facilitates the efforts to resolve the issues and disputes.

Both sides have once again pledged to do everything in order to resolve all issues and disputes. ‘We understand that we can resolve all outstanding issues with self respect and dignity’ said the Pakistani foreign minister while describing talks with his Indian counterpart as ‘frank, candid and friendly’. Somewhat similar sentiments were also expressed by the Indian foreign minister. According to newspaper reports the Indian foreign minister reported stressed that he found a strong willingness and desire to move forward.

The two sides also agreed to continue discussions on the ongoing Kashmir dispute with emphasis on narrowing down divergences. The two sides decided to increase the frequency of Muzaffarabad-Srinagar and Rawalkot-Poonch bus services to a weekly service from fortnightly service. They also agreed to finalize modalities for intra Kashmir trade and truck service at the earliest possible.

While these developments are welcomed by many people, skepticism was also expressed that these are minor concessions. Besides the operationalization of each one these measures took unnecessarily long time in the past and there is no reason to believe that it would be different this time unless some tangible development takes place.

Among the tangible developments that one can immediately think of includes agreements over Sir Creek and Siachin. Neither of these cases are deemed difficult to resolve. The indication that the Indian prime minister is likely to come to Pakistan sometimes this year certainly augurs well. But then one begins to entertain the notion that if he comes to Pakistan, he would be signing something tangible. What could that be?

Given the state of incumbent realities and the nature of relationships between Indian along with progress made over the last four years, one can safely assume that the issue that is on the verge of resolution appears to be Sir Creek. Already the two sides have completed the requisite surveys and it expected that it would be resolved in the next round. If this happens then one can imagine Indian prime minister’s visit to Pakistan.

Similarly the issue of Siachin could also be resolved provided the Indian army agrees to lift its objection. The Indian army has been continuously stressing that the actual positions of the forces should be demarcated before one proceeds on road to resolution. Whether or not the Pakistani side would accept this condition remains to be seen. So far Pakistan did not agree to this condition as it implied that Pakistan would have o give up its claim to territory that has been illegally occupied by the Indian forces.

Despite the fact that the two foreign ministers demonstrated goodwill and expressed willingness to resolve all the outstanding issues, to attain the desired objective may take quite some times. Not only the Indian have once accused Pakistani forces of violating the four year old cease-fire along the LOC (Line of Control), but have also deployed recently acquired advanced jet Sukhoi from Russia along the border with Pakistan.

Reports indicated that India would deploy at least thirty of those planes in order to strengthen its defenses. Not only the Sukhoi can fly rather fast but could also carry heavy payload. These war planes would also be stationed at airports closer to Chinese borders. India has been buying modern planes from Russia and other sources with a view to give massive teeth to its air force. The Indian buying spree could have adverse impact upon the thinking of neighboring countries which could result in expensive arms race.

Undoubtedly the expressed good intentions are appreciated by all the peace lovers but what needs to be seriously considered revolves around the notion that each side must ensure not to undertake any action that can even be remotely interpreted as threatening. Unnecessary indulgence in blame game and deployment of offensive weapons closer to borders could take a heavy toll of expressed goodwill and good intensions.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy research Institute.