Resuming Indo-Pak talks

The POST, Sun, May,18, 2008.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

The fifth round of Indo-Pakistan peace process is likely to begin soon. The foreign ministers meeting scheduled to be held in Islamabad on 21st May is expected to review the progress made during the 4th round and set the dates for fifth round which is likely to begin in the second of half of this year. The gap between the talks is undoubtedly the product of political developments in Pakistan. Since the new political government has already started working, it is expected that the dialogue process would soon be resumed and no further delay would impede the process that has been so carefully and so painfully constructed.

It is earnestly hoped that no undesired development such as the recent Jaipur blasts would radically influence the process. While there is no doubt that this was a tragic and heinous act causing the loss of life of innocent people and should be condemned strongly, efforts should always be made from both sides not to allow any such development to cause unnecessary delay. Admittedly such acts provide fodder to hardliners to capitalize on it and advance their own agenda. It is matter of great satisfaction that the government of India refrained from its usual knee jerk reaction and point the finger at Pakistan. However it has been reported in newspaper that junior Home Minister Mr. Shriprakash Jaiswal has said that the’ people responsible for these attacks have foreign connection’.

Speculations such as that India could use the Jaipur bombings to put Pakistan’s newly elected government in an awkward position-something that US might encourage because of its apparent unease over Pakistan government’s decision to negotiate with Taliban are being reported in the papers. To lend credibility to such notions, the recent drone attack in the tribal area by the Americans is being interpreted as an evidence of American annoyance.

One thing that stands out of this particular line of thinking is that both the Indians and the US would use such adverse development for their own respective objectives provided the Indians decide to go along with the Americans. While it is true that conspiracy theories invariable gain instant popularity in our part of the world, in this case the circumstantial evidence reflects that the interests of the US and India are somewhat coinciding at this particular juncture.

Reports are indicating that the US is not very happy over Pakistani government’s approach to attach high priority to negotiations process which has already started. It is also being reported that the recent attack on the tribal area is undertaken without the consent of the government. This in turn implies and can be viewed as a deliberate effort to obstruct the negotiation process.

It has been suggested that US may be playing old game by encouraging India to take an accusative shot at Pakistan. In the past US has been applying pressures on Pakistan via India and at times it suited India as well. The notion of cross border terrorism was totally and without any questions was accepted by the US which suited and pleased the Indians. Despite the fact that Pakistan had allowed the reporters to visit AJK and assess whether or not cross border movement was encouraged by the government of Pakistan.

At the moment it seems that India is unlikely to play in the hands of any other power and would earnestly focus on advancing the peace process. Already so much time has been wasted and the process has not lived up to the expectations of the people. However this does not mean that it has not moved at all. It has been moving at a snail’s pace which tends to generate more pessimism than optimism.

It would be advisable for both India and Pakistan to accelerate the pace of the process. Already in some quarters disappointment with the process is making inroads. What one should not forget is that both countries are blessed with hardliners who would use every opportunity to impede the process. But the encouraging thing is that a vast majority of ordinary people support the process in both countries.

Compared to India, Pakistan is confronting more pressures emanating from many sources yet an objective analyst finds Pakistani as more enthusiastic than the Indians to carry the process forward. India on the other hand appears to be playing attrition game. The long delays in the resolution of issues and disputes tend to not only make the dispute more complicated as new irritants begin to creep in but also injects undesired despair.

Some time the attrition game tend to take a heavy toll of goodwill and begin to replace it with negativism on one hand and puts off the other party completely which begin to show signs of fatigue resulting into undesired stalemate. India and Pakistan have seen too many stalemates in the past. Therefore the efforts in the 21st Century should be focus on earnest efforts to resolve the disputes issues as quickly as possible.

If one judges by the past behavior of the Indian capitalization of periodically emerging adverse developments, then one is bound to be convinced that it would not miss even this opportunity that has been offered by the Jairpur blasts even though there exist not even a shred of evidence pointing towards Pakistani based group’s involvement. In fact the local police are indicating that the blasts have the hallmark of a Bangladeshi based group Harkat-ul-Jihad al Islami whereas latest reports published in the newspaper are naming hitherto unknown group called ‘Indian Mujahideen’.

While the past is studded with examples when the quick Indian response manifested in the form of allegation against Pakistan which, later on, proved to be utterly wrong, there is no reason for India to use this undesired and unfortunate development for impeding the peace process. It is advisable for both parties to accelerate the peace process and resolve the outstanding disputes and issues quickly.

Given the restrained Indian reaction and the extremely positive approach of the new Pakistani government, it is hoped that the dialogue would not only soon be resumed with added vigor but would also demonstrate visible advancement.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy research Institute.