Quest for a new strategy in Afghanistan

The POST, Sun, Nov,16, 2008.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

Ever since Gen. David Petraeus, the top soldier in Iraq, had taken over as head of the Central Command, reports are circulating that he has ordered a formal review of US strategy in Afghanistan that is expected to focus on two main themes; possible reconciliation with the Taliban and cooperation with the neighboring countries including Pakistan and Iran.

As far as the first theme is concerned even the American Defense Secretary Robert Gates has referred to it on the sides lines of the recent NATO meeting in Budapest. Mr. Gates openly stated that he favors some form of reconciliation but does not know how it would evolve. In a subsequent speech at the US Institute of Peace Mr. Gates stressed that the solution in Afghanistan is to work with the tribes and the provincial leaders in order to create a backlash against the Taliban.

Just about ten days back Jirgagai was held in Pakistan which recommended initiating dialogue with the opposition groups which included Taliban and Al Quaeda operators. A meeting had also been held in Saudi Arabia in not too distant past between the Afghan government officials and former Taliban at the request of Afghan President. The reports also indicate that the meeting had the blessings of the Americans as well as that of NATO.

The move to make contacts with the opposition groups is primarily cause by the realization that there could be no military solution of the problem. Not only the British officers who have served in Afghanistan have reportedly stressed the need for making contacts but even the American Defense Secretary appeared to have stated that talking to Taliban would be part of an exit strategy from Afghanistan.

Ostensibly the shift from ground forces to air strikes has certainly minimized the fatalities of the foreign troops but it has enormously increased the killings of the innocent Afghan civilians. According to one published source 2300 Afghans have been killed by US and NATO forces since 2006. Rapidly increased killings of the Afghan civilians have radically affected the attitudes of the Afghans who have begun to look at the foreign forces as occupiers and the initial perceptions of liberators is receding fast into oblivion.

The new Centcom Commander Gen. Petraeus wants to separate the Taliban from Al Quaeda by employing political strategies with the objective of reconciling with the Taliban. This also means that severing of link between Taliban and Al Quaeda would weaken the joint strength of the opposing forces. In this connection the notion of focusing on tribes is deemed to be useful.

The second projected strand of the new strategy is to enhance cooperation with the neighboring countries. For years Pakistan has stressed the need for greater cooperation not just with Afghanistan but also with all the regional stakeholders in order to resolve the ongoing Afghan crisis. In this regards, Pakistan extended and continues to extend its hand for cooperation.

It is not too difficult to identify factors that have rapidly messed up the situation in Afghanistan. Among those frequently mentioned factors include the weakness of the incumbent government along with rampart corruption, the booming drug trade and the influence of drug barons on various stakeholders, weak institutions, the presence of large number of foreign forces and their indulgence in killing of innocent civilians, inability of donors to live up to their commitments, the slow reconstruction process, the increasing influence of India, the rapidly deteriorating law and order situation, vast control of the war lords and resurgence of Talibans etc.

While the frequent employment of the blame game became part of diversionary tactics which did buy sometime and was reflective of accumulated frustrations and desperation but it was unable to resolve the issues and clear Afghanistan’s mess. Far years both the American media and Afghan government have preferred to put the blame on Pakistan for its inability to plug the undesired cross border movements. The phrase often employed in this connection was that ‘Pakistan has to do more’ implying Pakistan’s reluctance to effectively control Taliban activities. Such phrases could only add to the existing arsenal of mutual suspicions and distrust and further complicated the already troubled relationships.

Undoubtedly the panacea of Afghan troubles revolves around what can be termed as cooperative and friendly relations between Afghanistan and neighbors. To put the blame for its own internal troubles on the good intentioned Pakistanis had only strengthened the hands of those who do not want to see the advent of stable and friendly Afghanistan. In recent times many articles have appeared suggesting realistic approaches. The idea of involving the regional countries reflects realistic approach and it is indeed useful.

The existence of the tripartite commission has always been termed as a useful device to deal with complex issues of border movements. The three member countries (Afghanistan, US and Pakistan) have been meeting periodically with a view to resolve the complex problems that arise from time to time and to strengthen cooperation among them. The idea of involving neighbors which Gen. Petraeus is promoting does reflect aspects of regional approach.

The election of Barak Obama as the next US president has generated a wave of optimism with regards to expected changes in policy pursuits of US especially in Iraq and Afghanistan and Gen. Petraeus quest appears to be part of the changes that are seriously being contemplated.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy research Institute.