Putin’s Iran trip

The POST, Sun, Oct,21, 2007.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

There is no doubt that all Summits, in some ways, are extremely important. Ordinarily the Summit implies the final effort to find a way out of a complex and tricky situation. Invariably the differences at the bureaucratic level are often sorted out at the Summit level. The parties involved make concerted efforts to give their views sufficient weight in order to attract the desired level of support. 

Some Summits acquire increased importance because of the operative nature of peculiar set of circumstances. The recent Caspian summit has been held in an overall atmosphere of intense American hostility towards Iran. The Americans have been engaged in mustering international support to pressurize and to isolate Iran in order to dissuade the Iranians from what they allege that Iran is dead set to acquire nuclear weapons. Already twice the UN Security Council has imposed sanctions upon Iran and the Americans are feverishly working to secure a third UN resolution imposing tougher sanctions upon Iran. 

For obvious reasons Iran is focusing on strategies how to prevent international isolation and slowed down the process leading to tougher sanctions. The holding of Caspian summit in Tehran and the participation of President Putin has enabled the Iranian to break the diplomatic logjam. Not only the outcome of the summit has been very encouraging for the Iranians but the bold words of President Putin has certainly not only added a new dimension for the US approach but has also provided sufficient comfort to the Iranians. 

Cognizant of the failure of the Ashkabad summit over the thorny ownership question, this summit focused on areas of shared interests, trans-boundary issue and trade etc. with the hope that the goodwill generated at the meeting would facilitate subsequent summits to concentrate on the divisive issues. Besides, Iran realized that minor energy interests are at stake in Iran’s sector of Caspian Sea. 

The Iranian approach handsomely paid off resulting in the transformation of geo-strategic environment in favor of Iran. The major outcome of the Caspian summit was a unanimous agreement among the participating nations not to allow their territory for attack on another’s territory under any circumstances and disallowing any ship not flying the national flag of a littoral state on the Caspian waters. 

Not only the summit leaders stressed that any use of military force in the region was unacceptable but President Putin’s remarks that one should not even think in terms of using force in the region was certainly welcomed by the Iranians. In addition President Putin’s reassurance regarding the Russian commitment to complete Bushehr nuclear power plant reflect another significant development.  By stressing that there is no evidence to support the allegation of a nuclear weapon ambition of Iran, President Putin has laid emphasis on a dialogue approach via IAEA. 

Since Stalin’s visit in 1943 when he traveled to Iran to attend wartime summit with Churchill and Roosevelt no main Kremlin leader like President Putin has come to Tehran. President Putin’s statements were in line with his past position in which he has been consistently cautioning against military actions against Iran despite the fact Russia has supported the earlier two UN Security Council’s resolution imposing sanctions on Iran.

Most of western nations are deeply engaged in their efforts to secure a third UN resolution but Russia has blocked the third set of sanctions against Iran. Western nations seem to firmly believe that Iran is dead set on making nuclear weapons which the Iranians deny and stress their right to build nuclear establishments for peaceful purposes. President Putin minced no words in declaring his country’s support for Iran’s quest for peaceful nuclear energy. 

The American credibility is further eroded in the eyes of many when they compare the recent American nuclear deal with a non-NPT member India.  Not only it is a well known fact that the Indo-US nuclear deal has struck a death blow to the incumbent NPT regime but has also implicitly recognized India as a nuclear weapon state despite its repeated assertions that it will never recognize India a nuclear weapon state. The new operative rule is to legalize and legitimize all the wrong doings of a friend and deny even the well established rights to an adversary. 

In many ways not only the Caspian summit and its results represent a serious setback to America’s Iran policy but also highlights the hollowness of its Russian policy. Already many regional states including Pakistan has opposed the use of force and had suggested the dialogue route but the open Russian support for Iran and its commitment to carry out its obligations to Iranian nuclear power plant is certainly influencing other nations to review their outlook towards Iranian policy pursuits. 

It is anticipated that Iran would also respond positively and is likely to accommodate more of IAEA’s demands. Such a move would not only strengthen President Putin’s hand in dealing  with it western detractors but would also convince many neutral countries to see the wisdom of dialogue route. The Iranian nuclear negotiator is likely to visit EU soon in order to meet EU foreign policy chief and this meeting could prove to be an important occasion for Iran to respond positively to some of the demands of IAEA. 

Undoubtedly the Caspian summit along with its outcome and President Putin’s Tehran visit has provided not only the much need respite but has given boost to Iranian assertion that it is only engaged in peaceful pursuits of nuclear energy. The American policy of pressurization and coercion does not seem to be settling down in terms of gathering sufficient regional support for its intended strike against Iran. 

The increased Russian influence over Iran could be employed to gain more and more concessions which the IAEA considers somewhat essential. The hasty imposition of another set of sanctions would not be useful. On the contrary it could further harden the attitude of Iran. It would be a wiser course of action for the Americans to pay heed to Russian warnings against an intended military action. 

What the American need to do is to open negotiation with the Iranians directly. Many in Iran appear to believe that the main US objective is to change regime in Iran on the similar patterns as it has done in both Iraq and Afghanistan. The threatening gestures would soon fade away once the Iranian rulers begin to believe the Americans and for this it is imperative to have a direct negotiations between the US and Iran. 

President Putin’s Iran visit has certainly signaled the gradual erosion of Rice crafted diplomatic encirclement of Iran which in turn could have had a serious impact upon the coalition of the willing. Perhaps it is time for the Americans to opt for a realistic approach and adopt a principled approach rather than continuing applying one set of principles to friends and another set to the adversaries.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy research Institute.