Pakistan’s quest for full membership of the SCO

The POST, Sun, June,25, 2006.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema


The Joint Communiqué of the recently held fifth summit of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) clearly reflects not just the vision of the members but also their determination to effectively deal with menaces of extremism, separatism, terrorism and drug trafficking. Not only the members approved regulations governing the structure and the functioning of its secretariat but also agreed upon a cooperative program to combat terrorism, extremism, separatism etc. Cognizant of the evolving international situation, the members also expressed the hopes that SCO would become more dynamic in terms of its visualized and intensified economic and trading interactions.

The member states appreciated the work already done with regard to combating the above identified evils. They have already conducted three joint military exercises and scheduled the fourth one in Russia in 2007. They also pointed out that there is already a legal basis and an organizational structure for carrying out economic cooperation. They recognized that the implementation of Multilateral Economic and Trade cooperation among SCO members and the Action Plan has already begun. In pursuit of its long term goals the members and in pursuance of the latest declaration, the members instructed the Council of National Coordinators to conduct consultations on concluding a multilateral legal document on long term neighborly and amicable cooperation within the SCO framework

Born out of the earlier grouping called Shanghai Five (Russia, China, Kazakistan, Kyrgyistan and Tajikistan), the SCO came into existence on June 15, 2001 in Shanghai to promote mutual trust and friendship between the member states, and foster effective political, economic, scientific, and cultural cooperation as well as to promote mutual contacts in education, energy, transport and environment. Later Uzbekistan also joined as a full member. Mongolia became an observer in 2004. Last year (2005) three more states including Pakistan, India, and Iran were given observer status. While Afghanistan is also interested to get the observer status, this year it was invited to attend the fifth summit of the SCO members and observers.

In the fifth summit meeting of the SCO, President Musharraf strongly advocated Pakistan’s quest for full membership. He stressed that not only ‘Pakistan is eager to become a regular member of the organization’ but it would make constructive contributions and intimately cooperate with SCO in order to realize the group’s goals. Pakistan’s addition could strengthen SCO efforts for peace, security and stability in the region. Several reasons must have influenced and motivated the Pakistani leader to push for a full membership. To begin with there is no denial of the fact that Pakistan is strategically located. Not only it could be instrumental in fostering closer linkages between the adjacent regions in this area but could also act as a trade and energy corridor.

Not only the Chinese President has already recognized Pakistan’s potential to become an energy corridor through Gwadar Seaport but the two leaders have reaffirmed their resolve to further strengthen their existing bilateral ties and partnership in all dimensions.  In addition the Chinese government also offered support for reconstruction work in the areas that were hit by the devastating earthquake last year. Both leaders were hopeful that negotiations between the two countries on the free trade agreement would soon complete.

Another motivational factor could be Pakistan’s desire to foster closer ties, both at he bilateral as well as multilateral levels, with Central Asian states. The links with Central Asian states could be extremely useful both in terms of securing access to great deposit of energy resources but also helpful in diversification of its trade links. On the other hand the Central Asian states could get easy and shortest access to a warm water port on the Arabian Sea which in turn can provide the necessary boost to their trading relationship.

Yet another reason that could have made contributions towards Pakistan’s decision to seek full membership revolves around desired economic cooperation and increased trading interactions among regional organizations/groupings. Being a member of multilateral organizations, the individual states not only gain certain amount confidence but it facilitates the interactions among the member states. Pakistan is already a member of ECO and SAARC.

While there are many factors influencing Pakistani quest for full membership including some that have been mentioned above, it would be in order to mention some of the hurdles that can delay the realization of Pakistan’s quest for full membership. Among them perhaps the foremost consideration the existing members are likely to subject to serious considerations is the existing state of relationship between India and Pakistan. Most members prefer not to get themselves entangled with Indo-Pak conflicts and would prefer to see the outcome of the ongoing peace process. It appears to be in the interest of both India and Pakistan to accelerate their efforts in resolving their ongoing disputes. Conflict free India and Pakistan would be more welcomed. It would be somewhat unrealistic to think that the members would grant full membership to one and not the other. So far India has not categorically applied for full membership.

The second factor that could prove to be a hurdle to Pakistan’s quest for full membership is the decision making process adopted by the SCO. Admission of new members require consensus among all the members. A single blackball could easily block the new entrant. The principle of consensus could be more effective if the number of member states is less. If the number of members enlarged, the chances of complications impeding the decision making processes might increase.

In the fifth summit India was the only country that did not send either the head of government or the head of state. A linked interpretation that is circulating in some quarters is that it does not view favorably the domination of SCO by both the Chinese and the Russians. While it enjoys very good relations with the Russian and its relations with China are continuously improving, to play second fiddle especially in light of its strategic partnership with US and recently concluded nuclear agreement with Americans does not seem an attractive option.

The third reason that could cause the undesired delay revolves around the idea that the Central Asian states could be marginalized if the expansion takes place. Undoubtedly many of the Central Asian states would like to see themselves as fully integrated in the visualized scheme of economic cooperation and trading interaction within the SCO. In addition they would like to have an effective mechanism to fight against terrorism, separatism, extremism and drug trafficking. While they do recognize the utility of the having various states as observers but they seem to prefer to retain the decision making powers among the existing members.

While it is well acknowledged fact that SCO is not anti-US bloc or even a defense alliance, it has been recently portrayed as an oriental NATO. Some American even went to the extent of expressing that anti-Americanism is the real glue that binds the six SCO member states. Admittedly SCO is not a defense alliance but one cannot deny its massive importance. Its rapid rise has made it an attractive grouping. The SCO has large energy resources which could be used for economic development of the member countries. Given the delay in finalization of Indo-US nuclear pact, the Indian authorities may want to wait until the Indo-US agreement completes its passage through the US Congress before taking any major initiative. In this connection, Indian has also been delaying its final decision whether or not to fully participate in IPI gas pipeline.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy Research Institute.