The Global and Regional Ramifications
of US-India Nuclear Deal

The POST, Sun, Mar,26, 2006.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema


Despite American President repeated assurances that nuclear deal with India would not strain America’ relations with Pakistan, many in Pakistan continue to believe with good reasons that the current deal has not only seriously impacted upon the security situation in the region but also damaged the on going level of Pak-US relations. President Bush’s assertion that America’s relations with both India and Pakistan are important for a variety of reasons and the two sets of relationships involve different issues, does not cut much ice with the Pakistanis. Undoubtedly if viewed from American perspective, the American policies do not appear irrational. However if they are viewed from South Asian countries perspective especially from the Pakistani lenses, glaring shortcomings are easily visible.

What appears to have been ignored by the Americans is the incumbent level of distrust between India and Pakistan. Almost all moves undertaken by the outsiders have impacted upon the local players and their adversaries. President Bush’s idea that his friendship with both India and Pakistan could have soothing effects on their relations does not appear very realistic to many South Asians. Theoretically it does make sense provided the American take active interest in resolving the regional disputes. But the past history indicates that American policies are invariably revolved around the pursuit of their immediate interests and they have a history of letting their allies and friends down once their objective is attained. So far the Americans contributions in resolving the main Indo-Pak dispute appear to be extremely insignificant. There is indeed no reason to believe that the Americans will accelerate their efforts to remove the main hurdle between India and Pakistan.

Just before President Bush left for South Asia, he dropped hints that he would try to help resolve the Kashmir dispute. Many Pakistani became overtly optimistic forgetting the dismal American record in the past. Nevertheless they wanted to see whether or not the Americans would inject some new ideas in order to have the Kashmir dispute resolved. As was expected, nothing substantive has been done.

Many aspects of US-India deal which have a direct relevance for regional and global stability needs to be focused upon. While the Americans and a vast majority of the Indians are rejoicing over the deal, there are many all over the world who has subjected this deal to biting criticism. The regional criticism and more specifically from the Pakistanis is not just widespread but also invoking strong reaction among the people in general.

The US-India deal has not just destroyed the non-proliferation regime at the global level but has also created a new category of nuclear weapon state. It has allowed India to enjoy all the benefits without adhering to the NPT. Creating a special category of those state which have nuclear weapons and are not signatory to the NPT is perhaps not all that bad development but it should also be applied all other such states. Perhaps a better way to circumvent the NPT was that the NPT Review Conference should have devised a third category of all those states which have acquired the nuclear weapons but are not signatory to the NPT. But creation of special category by US implies the level of respect it accords to the entire NPT system.

At the national level the US has to amend many of its own laws to make the treaty operative. There is no doubt in my mind that despite the existence of very cogent and convincing arguments against the passage of new bill in order to make the recently signed agreement operative, the US Congress will pass the bill. Admittedly there exist substantive opposition to the bill but all reports indicate that eventually the bill will secure the desired passage. Many supporters of the bill believe that Indian record is impressive in terms of trade that contributes to nuclear program in countries which have not joined or have violated NPT or suspected of having secret nuclear program. Judged by an independent yardstick Indian record in passing nuclear and chemical related information is not all that rosy. Even the US has blacklisted some of the Indian firms.

The Indo-US deal is also going to provide to India the much sought after access to sensitive nuclear technology without according the desired compliance with global nonproliferation standards. The Administration in its hurried effort to push India to center stage appeared to have devoted very little time to study the treaty’s international and regional ramifications. But then this is not first time that US has bypassed the operative global norms for the advancement of its own political agenda. US have expressed its determination to make India a global player and in these connections, it appears that it is not too pushed in terms of observance of generally accepted norms.

In terms of its impact on regional balance, there are no two opinions about it that it would have devastating impact on the regional security situation. Not only India would gain access to sophisticated nuclear technology but it would also be able to get nuclear fuel. The Nuclear Suppliers Group may discuss the issue thoroughly and may even manage to cause some delay, they are unlikely to be able to have the reversal of American determination. India has also been acquiring many sophisticated conventional weapons and in so doing it has already caused a major imbalance in the region. With the current deal, it would indeed be able to augment its nuclear capability as well. With increased asymmetry in defense capabilities, it is not too far fetched to assume that not only the threshold would be further reduced but chances for undesired arms race are brightened. Both China and Pakistan may be compelled to review their policies.

In it enthusiasm to sign the current nuclear deal India has also sacrificed its policy of non-alignment. It is indeed ironic that it was the Congress party that pushed the idea of non-alignment; it is now the same Congress which has opted to abandon its policy of non-alignment which was so forcefully advocated and pushed on world scene by Indian’s first Prime Minister Nehru. But then one cannot deny the fact that foreign policy needs to be adjusted in accordance with the changing dynamics of international relations.

The US-India nuclear deal has created a very difficult situation for Pakistan. Pressures are growing within Pakistan to re-evaluate its linkage with US. Admittedly Pakistan joined the International coalition to combat terrorism primarily for its own reasons and US did help Pakistan in some sense but the inability of the outsiders to extend due credit to Pakistani efforts and sacrifices is gradually invoking strong reactions among the Pakistanis influencing the rulers to rethink their policy pursuits. To make things even more complicated the American deliberate efforts to ignore Afghan government’s inability to play its part has further invoked reaction among the Pakistanis. Undoubtedly many in Pakistan have begun to believe the de-hyphenated relationships with India and Pakistan are meant to make India a global player even at the cost Pakistan’s legitimate interests and region’s stability.

Instead of damaging further the existing fragile security balance in the region, perhaps it would have been better for the US to demonstrate its sincerity by putting some pressures on both India and Afghanistan to do more. So far India has not moved an inch with regard to its Kashmir policy and Afghanistan has done nothing to curb the activities of militants on Pak-Afghan border Besides, Afghans have also given free hand to Indian consulates. Under these circumstances, the government in Pakistan is likely to be subjected to intense pressures to re-evaluate its regional and global policy pursuits. Increasing criticism is already making the situation rather difficult for the rulers.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy research Institute.