Need to save the peace process

The POST, Sun, August,13, 2006.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

Reacting to visiting American official Richard Boucher’s remarks that India had no evidence to blame Pakistan for Mumbai blasts, the Indian officials stressed that they have evidence stronger and more convincing than what the US had before launching an attack on Taliban’s Afghanistan. He even went to extent of stressing that Lashkar-e-Taiba (LT) is not only an integral part of Al-Qaeda but in some respects even bigger. He said that LT was a greater threat than Al-Qaeda due to its greater reach. He further stated that not only LT is Pakistan based but has linkages in many countries including Europe and Asia where they are very active.

What the Indian officials need to recognize and comprehend is that many splinter groups could acquire independent identity of their own. The LT no longer exists in Pakistan as it was banned in Jan.2002. What is possible is that it may have gone underground or changed its name. However it is equally important to comprehend that it may have established itself in India as well or its splinter group could have made the base in India and may have begun operations from India. This cannot be rules out altogether. After all one is well familiar with the many of the indigenous militant groups that are operating in and from India. Such groups could have established linkage with other groups in as well as outside South Asia.

For most Pakistanis it is not surprising that the Indians have once again pointed finger at Pakistan. As a matter of fact when the Mumbai blasts took place, many in Pakistan quickly assumed that India will eventually point finger at Pakistan. It has become well known knee jerk reaction of the Indians. Whenever the Indian officials are unable to come up with a tangible proof or with a convincing piece of evidence, they put the blame on Pakistan. In many ways Pakistan is viewed as a convenient scapegoat. Besides, even if later some evidence is discovered that the culprits are Indian or there was no linkage with Pakistan, the initial blame on Pakistan is a useful technique to tarnish Pakistan.

The evidence that has been offered so far is just as flimsy as were the previous cases. The Mumbai police has arrested eight Indian nationals and claimed that they have possible links with the alleged Pakistan based terrorist group LT. The police have not yet been able to prove the linkage of the arrested Indian nationals to either trains blasts or the LT. Yet the Indian officials deem fit to put the blame either directly on Pakistan or alleged Pakistan based groups. It needs to be stressed here that LT is banned in Pakistan.

Pakistan’s response to Mumbai blasts was very positive and courageous. Pakistan promptly offered to cooperate with the investigations despite the fact no concrete evidence was given either to Pakistan or openly aired for public to form their own opinion. Instead of taking up the Pakistani offer, the Indians official opted to carry on with their strategy of issuing loaded statements insinuating the involvement of Pakistan in some form. Here it might be useful to mention that in both cases of Chittisinghpora massacre and the attack on Indian parliament, the investigations led to the arrest of Indian nationals. In the case of attack on parliament three Indian individuals were convicted with award of death sentence to two of them and the third was awarded imprisonment.

It has become quite clear that either the Indian officials are either unable to find the real culprits or the main purpose of quick blame game is to tarnish Pakistan’s image. This strategy is neither useful for internal nor external policies. To blame Pakistan is unlikely to facilitate the investigations in many ways. On the contrary, India should have responded positively to the Pakistani gesture of cooperation.

One of the major victims of Indian blame game seems to be the ongoing peace process. Not only the foreign secretaries meeting to evaluate and examine the third round of dialogues were postponed indefinitely but even the swap of prisoners was cancelled. To make thing even more complicated and push the peace process further away is the recent tit-for tat-expulsion of the diplomats by India and Pakistan. The expulsion of diplomats is likely to cast a shadow over the hopes of early resumption of dialogue. Given the existing loaded atmosphere, this development is likely to take a heavy toll of efforts to resume the peace process.

Pakistan caught the Indian diplomat red handed when he was receiving sensitive documents from his contact and in consequence asked him to leave Pakistan. The reports also indicate that the involved diplomat confessed to the Pakistani authorities that he is an agent of India’s intelligence arm RAW (Research and Analysis Wing). Within hours the Indian retaliated by declaring a Pakistani diplomat as persona non grata and expelled him for allegedly indulging in activities incompatible with his diplomatic status.

Both Pakistan and India had openly stated in the past that not only the peace process has become irreversible but also asserted that no terrorist act would be able to derail it. It is earnestly hoped that both governments do not allow themselves to be trapped in quagmire of blame game and continue remain firm in their commitments to carry the peace process forward. This would indeed frustrate the efforts of those who oppose the sustenance of the peace process.  It is imperative that both governments avoid developments that could facilitate the derailment of the process. The periodic pauses that may be caused by any undesired acts should be gracefully taken in stride and continue making efforts to further strengthen the process.

Many people in Pakistan are not only disappointed over the slow pace of progress in the peace process but also feel that India is gradually taking a U turn on the peace process. They feel that this strand of Indian policy pursuit has become particularly pronounced ever since the US has tipped India for regional leadership. In this regard the Indo-US nuclear deal is frequently quoted. Yet it can be safely assumed that there are many who support the continuation of the peace process despite their increasing frustrations over lack of progress towards conflict resolution.

Another aspect that needs to b e highlighted is rapidly increasing perception that US is loosing interest in Indo-Pak normalization process and is currently engaged in diverting its attention to other strategic areas such as Middle East. Indeed there seems to exist some basis for this perception. Mere comparative analysis of efforts during the first term of President Bush with that of the second term clearly indicates the differences. Admittedly bulk of those efforts was focused on to prevent the outbreak of another war between India-Pakistan but the accompanying efforts were also aimed to improve indo-Pak relations which need to be recognized as well. It would indeed be a major blow if the US bows out at this stage.

What needs to be projected and recognized at this stage is the importance of peace dividends that could help the people of India and Pakistan in the long run. It is always very difficult to build the edifice of peace but it can be quickly destroyed. Since the peace process has survived the slings and arrow of the last three years, it can be pushed onward with little effort. Reports of military movement close to border are not conducive to resuming the dialogue. Besides, all senior officials need to scrupulously avoid issuing irresponsible statements.

Both the Indians and Pakistan need to fully comprehend the dictates of time. Being developing countries with their sizable population living in poverty, the efforts should be directed towards developmental processes and eradication of poverty. For obvious reason the most coveted objective of both is to provide a better quality of life to their citizens. However this may not be possible at least in the near future unless the overall atmosphere improves and the incumbent level of distrust is drastically reduced. The distrust would automatically be reduced once the core issue along with other conflict is resolved. To resolve the conflicts it is imperative that not only peace process continues but the international community should also continue playing its role.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy Research Institute.