Missile race and Peace in South Asia

The POST, Sun, September,3, 2006.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

The proliferation of missiles in South Asia seems to have introduced more insecurity rather than strengthening the existing sense of security among most countries of South Asia. There is no doubt that the missiles are regarded as one of the most lethal device in the overall arsenal of a nation’s military equipment. Just as the developed countries were deeply involved in the missile race particularly during the Cold War era, some countries are trying to emulate the cold war model even in the post cold war period. One such area that is being sucked into the unnecessary race for missile acquisition is South Asia.

Missile is a carrier of both the conventional and nuclear warheads. Not only its range is quite substantive but its accuracy has already demonstrated a marked improvement. Missiles can be fired from naval ships, aircrafts and land based launchers. Since the advent of  nuclear weapons, efforts were focused on developing a delivery system. With the passage of time the developed nation initially developed missiles that could only carry one warhead. Later they improved and developed missiles that carry and deliver multiple warheads.

South Asia is an area that has never experienced the desired level of peace and stability. Apart from its internal security problems that are the product of the internal dynamics of the states, the continued rivalry between India and Pakistan and accompanying security policies further complicated the security scenario in the region. Pakistan’s quest to acquire military strength is primarily motivated by its threat perceptions of Indian security policy pursuits.

Various reports put the figures of already acquired nuclear weapons by South Asian States rather differently. Some say that India has around 60 nuclear weapons whereas Pakistan has around 20. While it is often argued that the number game does not apply to nuclear weapon capabilities, there is no doubt that number play a significant role in conventional capabilities. Besides the continuing quest to improve the weapon along with their deliver systems further complicated the situation.

One of the major factor that injects insecurity is the incumbent conventional as well as nuclear asymmetries. This becomes even more pronounced when this factors is viewed within context of two states deeply involved in a conflict situations. Both India and Pakistan have been locked up in a conflict situation since 1947. Pakistani sense insecurity forced its leaders to look for all those alternative that could transform the existing sense of insecurity into a sense of security. Since the sense of insecurity takes a very heavy toll of developmental pursuits, it becomes imperative to remove it quickly if possible. Hence they opted to join the Cold War defense alliance system which enabled them to develop their armed forces as well as to devote sufficient resources to country’s developmental projects.

Pakistan’s participation in the Cold War alliances was primarily motivated by Indian threats and to save local resources for the developmental pursuits. But being threatened by India it was also essential to build its forces. To build and equip its forces implied the allocation of massive resources. Pakistan’s dilemma at the time was how best to build its forces and not neglect its development simultaneously. The available resources were not sufficient to cater for both essential objectives. Perhaps that is why the ruler at the time thought to join  defense alliances which indeed facilitated the strengthening of  armed forces and allowed the government of the day to save a major portion of local resources which were ultimately allocated to developmental projects. It appears that the chosen recipe worked and enabled the government to attain both objectives to a reasonable extent.

The growing gap in recent times in terms of conventional as well as strategic capabilities tends to remind the earlier situation that existed between India and Pakistan earlier but with one major difference. In terms of conventional capabilities India has around 1,325,000 active soldiers along with 1,55,000 reservists whereas Pakistan’s strength is no more than 550,000 personnel.

India’s strategic forces consists of Prithvi 1-3, Agni 1-3, Suryia (ICBM under development). BraMos (Supersonic anti-ship missile), Sagarika (SLBMS-under development) whereas Pakistan possesses Hatf 1-3, Haider (under development) Shaheen 1-2, and Ghauri etc. As far as the Naval forces are concerned the Indians have one aircraft carrier (and another one is being refurbished in Russia) with 55,000 personnel whereas Pakistani navy consist of 24,000 naval personnel. Pakistan does not have any aircraft carrier. As far as the air force is concerned India has 170,000 personnel with 825 combat aircraft whereas Pakistani air-force consists of 45,000 personnel with 331 aircrafts. Undoubtedly the induction of F-16 and other defense related equipment would make some difference but the overall conventional balance would remain in favor of India.

The recent Indo-US nuclear deal is likely to enable India to produce more fissile material for its nuclear weapons. The deal allows India not only to continue producing more fissile material for its nuclear weapons arsenal but the expected changed guidelines for nuclear suppliers  groups would give India access to duel use technologies which, in turn would help India enormously in increasing its strategic arsenal. In addition Indian planning to secure advanced version of Anti ballistic missile systems would indeed have far reaching implications for South Asian Security.

Reports have also indicated that India has already planned to acquire Israeli Phalcon Airborne Warning & Controlling Systems (AWACS) which would indeed effectively but adversely effect balance between India and Pakistan. The AWACS could effectively monitor developments on Pakistani territory. Besides, India has already acquired Green Pine radar system from Israel which can track the incoming missiles.

The growing gap tends to increase early reliance on weapons which are not mainly meant for actual use. The main task of nuclear weapons is to deter. No body in the right mind actually think of their use. If the nuclear weapons fails to perform its main job of deterring the enemy, then drift towards the dangerous brink can be visualized.

Given the Indian plans to acquire so many new sophisticated weaponry from various countries including US and Israel in order to maintain its primacy in every dimension of military technology, it becomes imperative for the Pakistanis to take appropriate measures for its defense. In fact Pakistan seems to be under pressure to maintain strategic equilibrium with India. It is obvious that Pakistan would need to acquire the essential minimum in all arms of its forces. As the economy appears to be performing well, it can be safely assumed that certain necessary allocation to the forces to maintain its essential minimum could be contemplated.

It is also imperative that the great powers must always keep in mind the regional sources of insecurity and make concerted efforts to treat the underlying causes in order to make the area stable, safe and peaceful. If some area is experiencing difficulties because of some area-actors are locked up in a conflict situation, then efforts should be directed to resolve the conflict on one hand and avoid all those measures that can cause increased asymmetry. The great powers could play an effective role in resolving Indo-Pak conflicts and reduce the growing arms asymmetry. Without the resolution of ongoing Kashmir dispute, the quest for narrowing the gap is going to remain as one of the major preoccupation of the weaker party to continue working towards the removal of insecurity.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy Research Institute.