Looking For Alternatives

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

Military strike against the Taliban controlled Afghanistan is being contemplated by the Bush administration. The threat of impending attack has not only given birth to a humanitarian crisis along with an accelerated refugee influx into Pakistan but has also initiated a debate that who would replace the Taliban if the incumbent regime falls. While many alternatives are being discussed, three seem relatively more feasible by some analysts. Among these are included the northern alliance's government, the King Zahir Shah option and a broad based government.

It has been recently reported in the media that the northern alliance might be able to secure the much-desired backing of the US. While the US State department spokesman merely indicated that the US is in touch with many Afghan factions including the northern opposition, the Defence Secretary's suggestive remarks that US might seek the support of the Afghan opposition in order to find out the exact whereabouts of Osama bin Laden paved the way for many enthusiastic reporters to speculate that US is dropping hints to extend support to the northern alliance.

While there are many members of media (both electronic as well as print) who are stressing that the northern alliance has found a strong ally in the form of the US, the Americans have not so far openly committed to arm the northern alliance. Apprehensive of the likely US support to the northern, the Pakistani Foreign Minister was quick to express Pakistan's concerns and warn the Americans against the augured assistance to anti-Taliban groups and stressed that such a move would amount to adding sufferings to the people of Afghanistan.

Consisting mainly of non-Pakhtoons, the northern alliance relies rather heavily upon Tajik and Uzbek troops engaged in defending the northeastern territories of Badakhan, Takhar, Panjshir valley and some areas of Shomali plains. Three main ethnic groups including Tajik's Jamait-I-Islami, Uzbeck's Junbish-I-Milli and Hazara's Hizb-I-Wahdat are the backbone of the northern alliance. The alliance has been receiving arms from various sources including India. Despite the backing of many countries the alliance not only lacks the requisite manpower, training and equipment to unseat the Talibans. Unless the outsider sympathizers opt to stay in the country, the northern alliance does not really have to capacity more than to defend the currently held areas, which are less than 10% of the total territories of Afghanistan.

Apart from Pakistan's attempts to caution the world against the hazards of arming northern alliance and attempting to prevent an anticipated disaster, there are two other factors that need to be taken into considerations. First, the existing ethnic composition of Afghanistan includes 38% Pakhtoons, 25% Tajiks, 6% Uzbeks, 19% Hazaras and 12% others. No government in Afghanistan can function without the active participation of the Pakhtoons. Even if the northern alliance manages to install itself with the help of outsider, even then they would have to enlist the support of the Pakhtoons in some form.

Equally important is the character of the Afghan people. The Afghans are fiercely independent people. They don't like an imposed government. The history of Afghanistan is studded with examples depicting how the Afghans resisted such efforts and were eventually able to drive the imposed elements. Invariably those who tried to install their own people in seats of power, they eventually had to pay heavy price.

The second option, which is being discussed these days, is the return of King Zahir Shah. While there are many who think that the restoration of the King could cause a quicker return to normalcy in Afghanistan, there are others who consider the return to monarchy irrelevant. However there are many voices that look at the King as someone who may turn out to be acceptable to all the warring factions. If the king is asked to come back for a specific job of restoring peace in Afghanistan, then it is possible that he may be able to secure the requisite cooperation. Some reporters have also claimed that mere news of Shah's return is taking a heavy tool of Taliban's popularity.

Both the UN and US officials have reportedly approached King Zahir Shah. While it may be true that King could act as some form of a unifying force for sometimes, it needs to be highlighted that the Afghan king is more than 80 years old and he may not be able to take the strains of shuttle diplomacy. Having experienced long periods of internal turmoil's, there are many in Afghanistan who are genuinely longing for a spell of peace. The long period of his rule (1933-73) is often nostalgically remembered these days as a period of peace and stability. A temporary stay of the king in order to evolve some form of face saving devise could prove to be useful provided all the major factions extend their support to the king.

A third option is that of a broad-based government. Broad based government implies that all the major as well as some minor factions of the Afghan society would be given representation in congruence with their population ratio as well as their power bases. In short this government should reflect all the ethnic shades of Afghan society and various warring factions including the Talibans. This is probably the best option. But the major snag is how to get them together and secure the much-desired agreement. To attain this objective a three-fold strategy needs to be evolved. First, coordinated efforts of both the UN and OIC are required. An initiative needs to be taken by the UN in close cooperation with the OIC. The two representatives of the UN and OIC should work together and consult all Afghan factions.

Having consulted the various factions, the two representatives should arrange a meeting of all the neighbouring (primarily bordering) countries. The legitimate interests of the neighbours should be given due considerations. Both Pakistan and Iran can play crucial role. In fact Pakistan has been promoting the concept of broad based government for quite sometimes. Just as a compromise formula is required to bring the various Afghan factions together, a somewhat similar face saving device would become imperative for the success of bordering countries meeting.

The third stage for resolving the crisis is what I would call a mini Marshal plan for the reconstruction of Afghanistan. It needs to be stressed here that it should be made clear to the warring Afghan factions that such a plan would only go into effect once a certain level of stability inside Afghanistan is attained. Indeed it would require the generous help of developed world.