Karzai must focus on internal problems

The POST, Sun, October,22, 2006.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

Here we go again. Both the President Karazai and his Foreign Minister Spanta has once again started a campaign of maligning Pakistan. This is somewhat surprising if one places the recent irresponsible utterances by Afghan leaders within the context of President Bush’s efforts to have the war of words between Afghanistan and Pakistan stopped. The recent dinner meeting at White House did manage to communicate to both leaders the need to avoid the blame game. However it is only few weeks after the White House dinner that the Afghans leaders have gone back to their favorite pastime-blaming Pakistan.

Talking to a US news agency recently President Karazai reiterated that Mullah Omar has taken refuge in a Pakistani city of Quetta. The allegation has been repeatedly refuted by the Pakistani government. Admittedly there are Afghans living in Quetta but this does not necessarily imply that Mullah Omar is in Quetta. Admittedly the Afghan refugee camps do offer opportunities of a safe haven to those Afghans who illegally cross over to Pakistan. In the last somewhat similar allegation even an address was specifically mentioned. The subsequent investigation revealed that no such address existed. The presence of large Afghan refugee population on Pakistani soil is prone to all sort of unsubstantiated allegations.  

In an interview with Sky News TV channel the Prime Minister of Pakistan Shaukat Aziz once again reasserted that Pakistan wants to see a strong, stable and peaceful Afghanistan. He further said, ‘We want to see more reconstruction in Afghanistan, bright future and elimination of poppy cultivation’. He also stated that the ‘real problem in Afghanistan is indigenous’. Undoubtedly ineffectiveness of the government, deteriorating law and order situation, increased poppy cultivation, the questionable activities of the warlords, the rampant corruptions and Tlibans resurgence are just some of the problems confronting the Afghan regime.

Three of the above mentioned problems of Taliban, drugs, and warlords are partly the product of American lack of vision and comprehension of Afghan society.  To begin with the American did not employ sufficient forces to restore order in Afghanistan. While in Iraq the US deployed more than hundred thousand troops to deal with the situation whereas its forces in Afghanistan remained far less than even one third of what was sent to Iraq. By all accounts it is becoming increasingly clear that American administration was never seriously committed to Afghanistan. However there is no doubt that Iraq war distracted the US from the war on terror in Afghanistan.

In its enthusiastic hunt for Osama Bin Laden, the US seems to have gone out of the way to avoid annoying either the drug barons or the warlords. Not only the American forces avoided bombing the drug labs but also bypassed of the poppy fields. The US appeared to be avoiding alienating any one who could assist in any way to capture Osama. The message at the time was help in capturing Osama and no one will even look at the drug trafficking.

Referring to Pakistani efforts for ensuring peace in Afghanistan, the Pakistan Prime Minister questioned that why would Pakistan like to indulge in any such activities that can cause further deterioration in law and order situation, and security problems in Pakistan. He emphatically denied all such allegations that air periodically from the Afghan sources that Pakistan is encouraging or even protecting the Talibans. He stressed that Pakistan is deeply committed to fight against terrorism and so far has not performed too badly.

The crux of Pakistani Prime Minister’s argument was that Pakistan’s involvement in fight against terrorism and extremism is based on its national interest and conviction that terrorism must be fought in all its means and forms. A stable Afghanistan would enable Pakistan to vigorously pursue the gas pipeline project from Turkmenistan and also secure a corridor for electricity from Tajikistan. In addition, it would further increase trading interactions between the two countries. He stressed that Pakistan has devoted lot of its limited resources to fight terrorism. Almost all the leading countries that are engaged in war against terrorism have openly and repeatedly acknowledged and commended Pakistan’s performance in war against terrorism.

For ensuring peace in Afghanistan Pakistan has already undertaken number of steps. To begin with it has focused how to stop infiltration if it is taking place. It has posted more than 80,000 troops in the tribal areas in order to prevent foreigner’s illegal movement on Pak-Afghan border. In recent times it has also signed a deal with the tribal elders to ensure that no infiltration or cross border movement of Talibans takes place. Some Afghans even misinterpreted the agreement and projected as an agreement with the Taliban whereas in real terms it is meant to check the Talibans movements.

Cognizant of age old historical, cultural and economic links between the people of Pakistan and Afghanistan, the movement across have to be handled carefully. In this connection the Prime Minister in his interview to the American TV channel stated that Pakistan is not only exploring means and ways to have an effective control of Afghan flow into Pakistan. It is even thinking of mining and fencing part of the border. In addition it is trying to establish the most modernized border check posts with the help of computers in order to check the papers of people traveling across the border and also to keep a tap on who was going and who was coming.

Two other developments also need to be mentioned as both can be useful in many ways. First the existence of a tripartite commission which consists of Pakistanis, Afghan and American officials. It could be extremely useful in coordinating all cooperative efforts including joint patrolling of the borders. Second, the regular meetings of high officials could be extremely useful in sorting out many issues quickly. The meeting of Heads of governments could also be significant in untying the knots.  

Despite all Pakistani constructive efforts, the situation has not yet improved to the minimum desired level. It seems that in the ultimate analysis it would be the local force that would be able to maintain law and order. An International Security Assistance Force was establish by the UN resolution 1386 to assist the Afghan interim authority but the ultimate responsibility for maintaining security would indeed fall upon the Afghan indigenous force. Already 50,000 Afghan soldiers have been trained but the incumbent messy situation requires many more. In February 2002 the then Tajik interior minister Yunis Qanoonai confidently predicted that Afghanistan would be able to rely on its forces within a year. More than four years have passed and the situation is no better than what it was in 2002. Some even claim that it has further deteriorated.

The only recipe for Afghan ills is to focus with all the seriousness they can muster on the internal problems including exploring avenues to talk to moderate Talibans. Neither all Pakhtoons are Talibans nor are all Talibans militants. If the British Commander in Southern Afghanistan recognized the merit in negotiating a mutually beneficial arrangement with the local elders, why can’t the Kabul regime look into it?  Putting blame on outsiders is not going to pay any dividends. It may buy sometimes but it is not going to resolve anything. On the contrary it could produce adverse effects. One of major adverse consequence of the blame game that many Pakistan are seriously thinking is to speed up the return of the Afghan refugees. If there are no Afghan refugee camps on Pakistani soil, then it would be extremely difficult for Afghan infiltrators to secure a safe haven and could be easily apprehended.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy research Institute.