Is the peace process in danger?

The News, Sun, June,20, 2004.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema



It is not surprising if few pessimistically orientated pieces appear in the Indian press generating the impression that the Indo-Pak piece process is likely to die a slow death especially with the advent of Congress led government in India. The past record of the Congress is not all that impressive but this does not mean that the party cannot come with some innovative ideas and demonstrate its prowess. However case can also be made out in favor of the process moving forward.

The arguments that have so far been advanced revolve around four factors that are alike to arrest the peace process. First, it is a minority government, which is heavily dependent upon its coalition partner’s consent. But it can also be argued that the Vajpayee government was also a minority government; He was also leading an alliance. Despite the varied pressures within the National democratic alliance Vajpayee was able to initiate the peace process. If he can take his coalition partners along with him, why should one entertains the thought that Manmohan Singh would not be able to do so.

Second reason quoted by one news report revolved around the Italian birth of Sonia Gandhi. Despite repeated assertions that Mrs. Gandhi is just as good an Indian as any Hindu extremist within the BJP, many in opposition continue projecting her foreign birth. The people of India seem to have reconciled with her foreign birth as they voted her party to power but many leaders of BJP and Sangh Parivar have refused to accept the realities on ground. Some of these leaders have even demonstrated their intense dislike by vowing to undergo some ridiculous ritual performance if she had opted to assume the office of the prime minister of India.

Given the extent to which some of the opposition leaders can go, it is not too far fetched to assume that Mrs. Sonia Gandhi is confronted with severe limitations especially when it comes to decide the fate of Kashmir. She was able to successfully blunt the moves of BJP by withdrawing her name from the list of candidates for the job of the  prime minister but sensitive issue like Kashmir would entail much more political acumen and prowess to satisfy all concerned.  Since the ongoing Kashmir dispute has become extremely sensitive for both the Indians and the Pakistanis, to expect a resolution within a short span of time would amount to be a somewhat unrealistic pursuit.

Admittedly the Indians have demonstrated a dislike for Hindu extremists pursuits in the last elections but this does not necessarily imply that they would easily accept the fate of Kashmir other then what they have hinted at various occasions. Already the opposition has dropped hints that they would exploit the faintest sign of weakness. One can understand that this is part of the democratic set up to exploit every opportunity that comes on way, but sensitive national issues require even more careful approaches. 

Some of the senior BJP leaders are already saying that the ‘whole question of give and take with Pakistan will have to be thrown out of window now’. ‘Sonia, a foreigner can never convince the country to give anything to the Pakistan’, stressed one of the BJP leaders. Given BJP record it is not difficult to augur that they would not miss any opportunity to exploit the situation. 

Third factor that is extending some support to the idea that the peace process may die a slow death is the appointment of two of the known hawks on foreign policy within the Congress folds to the offices the Foreign Minister and the National Security Advisor. Both have spent years in the Foreign Service. Both have served in Islamabad as Ambassadors and have never hesitated to demonstrate their deep suspicions of Pakistan. For complex issues like the ongoing Kashmir dispute, one needs innovative forward-looking visionaries to resolve it.

The fourth factor that is lending support to this undesired notion is that signals that are coming out of New Delhi are not all that encouraging. Admittedly both the party leader Sonia Gandhi and the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have clearly and repeatedly extended full support to the peace process but signals coming from the ministry of foreign affairs are not just confusing but reflect hardly any enthusiasm. On the contrary some of them are very confusing. The foreign minister has repeatedly stressed that the Indo-Pak relations must not be allowed to be held hostage to the past, yet the recipes he has offered dwell heavily upon the past.

Compared to the above-mentioned factors that are generating some concerns, there exist equally important factors that are strengthening the peace process and consistently generating optimism. First, it has been acknowledged by both sides over and over again that this time the people of Pakistan and India are on board. They have expressed their support for the peace process in many forms. For obvious reasons people’s wishes cannot be easily sidelined.  Not only the elected representatives have made their commitment openly but also the journalists, intellectuals, women, students, laborers, chambers of commerce and trade, professionals of many discipline have all extended public support to the incumbent peace process. It would not be all that easy to scuttle the process on whimsical pursuits.

Equally important is the second factor that deals with global development. Not only the international atmosphere has radically changed but also the process of globalization is impressing upon all states to read the writings on the wall. The  advent of WTO has influenced many states to prepare themselves to meet the challenges of WTO regime. Almost all states have been engaged in negotiations in order to safeguard their interests. The likely evaporation of some restrictions and the advent of new rules of game compel nations to adopt adequate safeguards and opt for most beneficial route. One such route is known as a collective regional approach. Almost all South Asian states are acutely aware of such an advantageous course of action and are eagerly waiting for India Pakistan to resolve their differences.

Third, the successful 12^th SAARC Summit at Islamabad has once again injected enthusiasm among the regional countries. Not only there appears to be an atmospheric improvement in terms of relations among the regional states, but also overall interaction is visibly registering a marked improvement. The passage of SAFTA, Social Charter and an Additional Protocol on Terrorism has truly encouraged all concerned. The implementation of the Social Charter is likely to bring the people of the region even closer to each other. The true spirit of regionalism seems to be now surfacing.

The fourth factor that makes many of us believe that efforts to resolve Indo-Pak difference would continue revolves around the degree of interest taken by the international community. Admittedly that the international community woke up after the nuclearisation of South Asia but even then their active interest is certainly a source of encouragement. Some even believe that the International community would sustain their interest in influencing both the Indians and the Pakistanis to keep the process moving forward in congruence with their global as well as regional interests. 

Of course peace process cannot move forward without the sincerely efforts both India and Pakistan. Neither country would like to be seen as the one, which is not supporting the process. In addition, the main leaders of both countries have not only openly committed to take the process forward but have been repeatedly assuring all of us their full support. It is up to the negotiators to device innovative mechanism that allows both parties to have what President Musharraf called a ‘win-win’ situation.

To facilitate the process perhaps it would be a good idea to device a mechanism that could encourage people to people contact. As has been written frequently by this scribe that both parties should be mentally prepared to accommodate each other’s sensitivities. In addition the media should be regularly engaged in educating the people of both countries on positive notes. Given the existing atmosphere along with expressed desire on the part of leadership to resolve their differences, there no reason to entertain pessimism especially when the actual meetings of the negotiators are just starting.