Is the bus accord a real breakthrough?

Pakistan OBSERVER, Sat, February,26, 2005.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema


Much has been made out of the recently concluded bus accord generating unnecessary euphoria. Despite the fact that international community has welcomed the accord, three different interpretations are being circulated rather widely in our media. Ostensibly each of these groups has advanced fairly convincing arguments. These opinions could be grouped into three categories, the optimists, the pessimists and the realists.

The optimists think that this accord has not only managed to obviate the undesired deadlock but it would also provide the much needed push to the ongoing peace process. There are many in both countries who saw non-agreement on the design of Baglihar dam taking a heavy toll of the incumbent goodwill and cordiality of the prevailing atmosphere. They stressed that the inability of the two countries to resolve Baglihar issue would certainly and adversely impact upon on other baskets of negotiations.

Natwar Singh’s statement during his recent visit that Pakistani step to approach the World Bank was premature and taken in hurry without consulting New Delhi appears to be reflective of  serious thinking after the case had been referred to the World Bank. He further said that India was ready to resume dialogue on redesigning of the dam provided Pakistan withdraws its case from the World Bank.  Statements or policy pursuits reflecting Indian government’s willingness could have been aired much before Pakistan made its intentions clear that it has been left with no alternative except to approach the Bank. Once Pakistan had approached the Bank, it would indeed be foolish to withdraw now. However one cannot deny the fact that all agreements tend to arrest deterioration in relations and help put the process of the right track.

The second argument that has been advanced by the optimists revolves around the plight of the divided families. They argue that the bus linkage would enable the divided families to re-establish contacts. But then there are many who argue that after the passage of 59 years, to harp upon the problem of divided families is somewhat an unrealistic pursuit. Not only new generations have been raised under different set of circumstances but they also have evolved different attitudes. 

Perhaps more important aspect of the recently agreed Kashmir bus linkage is that a regular contact among the Kashmiris could facilitate the evolution of some feasible way out and a workable solution of the Kashmir dispute. This is the third stance of the optimists. Judged by any yardstick it is an already acknowledged fact that no solution of Kashmir dispute is feasible unless the Kashmiris support it. A regular travel between Srinagar and Muzafferabad could indeed provide opportunities to the Kashmiri leadership for consultations and evolving an agreed formula.

Opposed to the optimists are the pessimists who look at the bus agreement from a diametrically opposite angle. To begin with the pessimists are extremely suspicious of Indian intentions. Firm belief that India wants all issues to be resolved in accordance with the Indian terms still persists. Such beliefs are further strengthened when contradictory statements of the Indian leaders are issued along with frequent backtracking approaches. For instance Indian Foreign Minister while in Islamabad expressed optimism and determination to carry forward the peace process but on arriving home, the expression regarding the onward movement of the peace process became conditional. He stressed in New Delhi that ‘peace process could only be sustained in an atmosphere free of violence and terrorism’. He further stated that the Joint Statement of January 6, 2004 must be implemented fully.

Such a statement not only creates doubts in the minds of many but also reflects the true intentions of the Indians.  Indeed this statement was read by many Pakistanis that Islamabad was not honestly implementing the Jan.6, 2004 Joint statement and was still not taking effective measures to plug what the Indians call cross border terrorism. Not only it has been repeatedly acknowledged by many Indian civil and military leaders that cross border infiltrations are almost over but even the international community has taken full cognizance of this development and praised Pakistani efforts to resolve the dispute. Compared to the Indian leaders, many Pakistani leaders openly criticised the agreement and stressed that Pakistan has abandoned the much needed support to the Kashmiris.  

The pessimists on both sides also tend to highlight the possible misuse of travel arrangements. The arguments revolves around that this arrangement could facilitate the infiltration of undesirable elements on both sides. Some leaders of  BJP not only  expressed their apprehensions about the bus linkage but also asked the question why Jammu-Sialkot route has not been explored which is much shorter in distance. Similarly some political parties in Pakistan not only regarded the agreement as an untimely development but also saw it as a ploy aimed to sideline the Kashmir issue. Some even see it as a clever diversion.

The third group, the realists, see this development as a useful development that can arrest the fast spreading disappointment over the slow progress of the Indo-Pak composite dialogue process. While they recognise the utility of such confidence building measure and welcomed this development but they are also acutely conscious of its limitations. They have reservation about its proper implementation.

The inclusion of Indian and the Pakistani to travel in Kashmir has generated another set of  apprehensions. In the opinion of some it should have been in two phases. First phase should have been confined to the Kashmiris only implying that only the genuine Kashmiris should be allowed to travel on the bus initially. Having seen the proper implementation of the agreement for sometimes than the second phase should be initiated in which both the Indians and Pakistanis be also allowed to travel. To them it strikes rather strange that a Pakistanis or Indian cannot visit the other sides of Punjab without visa and passports  despite the fact the Chief Ministers of both Punjabs have been making all kind of constructive gestures but they can visit the other side via Kashmir or even just the disputed territory.

Given the history of Indo-Pak antagonistic relationships and the existence of a huge edifice of distrust, all moves that can erode even little bit of distrust and contribute towards the amelioration of overall atmosphere need to be welcomed but one need not to go overboard. It is a welcome move but in no way it can be treated as a real breakthrough. The real breakthrough would come when the Kashmir dispute is resolved or even appears to be near resolution.

 
The writer works for Islamabad Policy research Institute.