Is Defence Cooperation with US in doldrums?

The News, Fri, February,11, 2005.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema


The latest meeting of Defence Consultative Group (DCG) has ended without much to show. While one expected some tangible outcomes from this meeting as this was the first one after having declared Pakistan as a major non-NATO ally and President Bush’s initiation of his second term, the talks ended without demonstrating any significant progress in terms of positive commitment to supply the desired arms. Many questions are being raised. Is this a merely a discussion forum? Is it really extending serious considerations to Pakistani security concerns? Are the Americans willing to provide the weapons which Pakistan consider as essential for its security? How great is the impact America’s strategic partner India in blocking the flow of arms to Pakistan?

The general impression generated by the latest round of US-Pakistan defence talks is that Pakistan has been left high and dry and nothing much has been agreed upon especially on the supply of those weapons which Pakistan urgently require to meet its security requirements. The Americans have been focusing on issues of global and regional security. While one cannot deny that these are important issues but compared to Pakistan’s own security needs, these cannot but be classified as issues of lesser importance.

Undoubtedly security issues relating to Afghanistan, Iran and Iraq have significance for the Pakistanis but our major concerns has always been threats emanating from our eastern neighbour India. The irony of situation is that reports indicate that the American defence officials were stressing that US enjoys good defence relations and special attention was being given to Pakistan’s defence needs but most published newspaper reports reveal that most of the time the major focus remained on other security issues that are product of the current world order and Pakistan’s real concerns were merely discussed.

Stress on Pakistan’s membership of international coalition to combat terrorism and recognition of its contributions in fight against terrorism is indeed something that deserves to be discussed. However  avoiding any tangible progress on the supply of weapons that could  generate the satisfaction the Pakistanis are looking for tend to generate not only apprehension about the intentions of the Americans but even the status of being non-NATO ally also begins to appear meaningless.

The latest round of DCG and Pakistan defence officials meeting seem to have poured cold water on the expectations of the Pakistanis. Most Pakistanis were expecting that in this round the American will agree to the supply of much desired F-16 aircrafts. The significance of this issue can be judged by the fact that even President Musharraf raised it at his meeting with US President Bush in last December. The mere discussion over the issue without any tangible understanding has frustrated many. Given the existing growing reservoir of anti-American sentiments, the latest round of talks without some agreement on F-16s has further added complexities. Besides it should not be overlooked that the active Indian lobby in US continuously works towards denying Pakistan’s acquisition of those weapons that facilitate in mitigating the incumbent level of insecurity.

The leader of the American team the US Under Secretary of Defence stated that tangible progress has been made over the supply of F-16s to Pakistan and the matter would be dealt with at the right time. It is indeed difficult to guess what would be the right time. When asked to specify the major hurdles, he seems to have successfully evaded the question. All he was willing to concede was that the matter was receiving due considerations. Given the American policy over the last two decades and Pakistan’s quest to acquire F-16s, such answers tend to further weaken faith in American credibility.

The world  has entered in a phase in which most wars are fought with massive deployment of  the air force The two example one can immediately think of are Kosovo and the Gulf wars. Not only the efficacy of the air weapons is gaining rather rapidly increased recognition but the emphasis in almost all countries is to strengthen their air force. Pakistan is no exception to this general trend.

Pakistan’s air force needs heavy injections of modern air crafts especially in view of India’s induction of new weapons on a massive scale. The American appeared to have gone out of way even to influence the Israelis to sell. In view of the rapidly increasing imbalance, it is hard to accept that the Americans do not recognise the need for these weapons for Pakistani air force. Compared to Indian air force of 145000, Pakistan’s air force consists of only 45,000 personnel’s. Besides India has more than 700 combat aircrafts plus many armed helicopters whereas Pakistani air force has just around 350 combat aircrafts. Additionally India has acquired latest radar system which certainly contributes massively in widening the existing imbalance.

Assuming that the American are fully cognizant of Pakistan air force needs and requirements but are not willing to consider the supply of F-16s at this juncture for fear of incurring displeasure of their regional strategic partner, the obvious question that would strike all of us why do we have to be so cooperative with them when they are still judging your needs with an Indian measurements. When Pakistan was awarded the status of a non-NATO ally, many Pakistanis began to think that the Americans have de-linked their Pakistan policy with Indian policy pursuits and the road to Islamabad via New Delhi no longer exists.

The inability of the latest round of DCG to come out with an agreement on the supply of F-16s to Pakistan is likely to revive the notion that US policy is no different than what was in past. The road to Islamabad still passes through New Delhi. Already many Pakistanis view that the Americans are using Pakistan for its own ends but they do not give due and justifiable considerations to Pakistan’s security needs. Admittedly they are willing to supply you all those weapons that are not deemed as objectionable by the Indians. The rapid growth of such ideas could make situation very difficult for the government in power.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy Research Institute.