Indo-US N-Deal & Indo-Pak peace process

Pakistan OBSERVER, Tue, Oct,23, 2007.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema
 

According to an eminent American scholar Noam Chamsky the ‘Indo-US nuclear deal may well reverse the progress India and Pakistan have already made in their bilateral relations and prevent the laying of the gas pipeline from Iran to India through Pakistan which could bring peace to the region’. His argument basically revolves around American inability to see the benefits of peace pipeline from Iran to India via Pakistan that could further strengthen the ongoing peace process between India and Pakistan. 

Implicitly one can discern from the argument that the Americans basically are working towards de-linking of India from Iran and also are not particularly serious even about India-Pakistan peace process. Since they are gearing up to attack Iran on the similar accuse that was employed when the American invaded Iraq, India could be useful both in terms of putting pressures on China and eliminating India option for Iran. 

Indeed one of the most useful confidence building measures could be the IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) pipeline. Given the ongoing peace process between India and Pakistan along with the vastly improved atmosphere, it is not too far fetched to assume that development like that IPI agreement could undoubtedly enormously strengthen the ongoing peace process. The IPI pipeline would also increase mutual dependency in some form. 

It is a well known fact that America is intensely involved in halting Indian drift towards Iran with the aim of preventing the Iranian supply of its gas to India. Not only periodic pressures have been applied but it appears that the US is employing both reward and punishment strategies in order to prevent India joining the project known as IPI. The Indians, of course have to calculate what is most suitable for their national interests. 

The Indians currently seem to have settled down on associating themselves with the Americans and keep the project IPI on hold despite the fact that there exists a sharp division among its supporter. The left parties of India are openly opposing the Indo-US deal but the government is willing to go ahead even if it costs the parting of ways with the left supporters. Apparently the government has chosen to go ahead with the deal. 

A rational analysis clearly weighs heavily in favor of the deal. By becoming the strategic partner of the sole super power and by signing a nuclear deal enables India to not only secure the much sought after recognition as a nuclear weapon state but could also make efforts to secure a permanent seat in the UN Security Council with the total support of the Americans.  

Admittedly the Indians are confronted with energy problem but they feel that the US would do everything in its power to alleviate the energy situation of India. What the Indians are probably not focusing at the moment is the fact that US invariably abandoned its allies when its own objective is attained. However it needs to be stressed here that in this case the China factor may keep the Americans with India for quite sometimes. It appears that the Indian cost-gain calculus has influenced the Indians to opt for US. It is now up the Iranians to make moves that suit their national interest. 

 Secondly almost all critics of the Indo-US nuclear deal have repeatedly highlighted the damage it has done to the incumbent NPT (non-Proliferation Treaty) regime and also suggested a way how to recognize a non-NPT member a nuclear weapons state. The agreement also violates the US law, bypasses the Nuclear Suppliers group(NSG)-45 nations club that have established strict rules to lesson the danger of proliferation of nuclear weapons. Now the US is engaged in influencing NSG countries in order to secure a consensus to supply fuel to India. 

According to an eminent writer the American nuclear policy is designed to ‘assure allies and friends, dissuade competitors, deter aggressors and defeat enemies’. The same writer also argues that the American approach has changed from its Cold War ‘threat based approach to a what is known as ‘capabilities-based approach’.  However the problem with capability-approach is that it destroys a rational response to emerging threats. ‘Rather than encouraging decision makers to interpret the political context, judiciously measure the capability and intent of an adversary, and do what is necessary, it encourages them to respond to threats simply based on what they can do’. 

Although the American officials stress that it was conceived as a way to draw down the forces and reduce dependency upon nuclear weapons but neither the forces have been reduced nor its nuclear arsenal has registered a substantive reduction. Admittedly strategic war heads has registered some reduction during the period from 2002 to 2006 but its nuclear arsenal is still touching 10,000 mark. 

It is no longer a surprise for anyone following the US policy pursuits that Washington rewards allies and clients that ignore the NPT rules entirely while threatening Iran which has not violated the NPT despite extreme provocations. According to Prof. Chomsky that not only the Indo-US nuclear needs to be derailed but the threat of nuclear war is growing and part of the reason is that nuclear states, led by US, simply refuse to live up to their obligations. 

Many of us in the South Asian region felt that increased US influence over India would contribute substantively in accelerating the ongoing peace process between India and Pakistan but so far it has worked in impeding the process. Not only the Indo-US deal has destroyed the NPT regime but it has the seeds of encouraging others to beak the internationally accepted rules. 

The increasing American influence over India has only hardened the Indian attitude towards the peace process. Not only India has gone back from its efforts to resolve the easily resolvable dispute over Siachin, its military is now increasingly and somewhat effective impeding the process. The agreed formula of 1989 is no longer acceptable to the Indian army and the army is insisting on new terms. The Americans are, at least ostensibly and publicly, doing nothing for fear of annoying their new strategic partners. 

The American commitment to secure fuel supplies to India from other countries even if it resumes testing does not augurs well for future. Prof. Chomsky maintains that the deal permits India to ‘free up its limited domestic supplies for bomb production’. Such a situation certainly influences the Pakistan to review its policies. Admittedly the Pakistanis would be forced to up date their policies in congruence with the implications of the Indo-US nuclear deal. 

Undoubtedly the Americans have struck a deadly blow to the ongoing peace process if not destroyed it altogether. It is up to the Indians to play their cards wisely. Instead of feeling comfortable in American lap, they need to be realistic and should seriously think of ways and means how to carry the process forward. Intoxicated by the American lullabies, the Indians must realize that they will have to live in the region and nothing could be more useful for them than to have all the South Asians as their partners.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy research Institute.