Indo-Pak talks must resume soon

The POST, Sun, September,10, 2006.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

Since the Mumbai train blasts the dialogue between India and Pakistan has come to a halt. Although no one saying that it won’t be resumed, the delay in resumption is unlikely to be a pacifier. The longer the delay, the greater are the chances of inadvertent complications. Almost all peace lovers look at the undesired delay with utmost concerns. Not only the momentum of the process is radically slowed down but the spirit of cooperation begins to dampen but it would also strengthen the efforts of the hardliners opposing the peace process.

While vociferously condemning the Mumbai blasts President Musharraf in a recent interview to an Indian magazine Frontline suggested certain doable parameters in order not just to resume the dialogue but also to add strength to it. He agreed with the interviewer’s proposal that the two countries set up contacts between their top security aids to calm things down in emergencies. Referring to the freelance terrorists roaming around with an agenda that created problems between the two countries, it was suggested that the intelligence agencies should stop targeting each other and start cooperating in a common cause against terrorism.

It was also pointed out in the interview that many Indian officials and media personals dabble in unnecessary statements and allegations with specifically pointing finger at Pakistan. Such efforts to malign Pakistan for something which it has not done are unlikely to facilitate the resumption of the dialogue. One must not forget that Pakistan’s record in countering the extremism is universally recognized to be very impressive. To strengthen the peace process it is imperative that all concerned not merely take interests but actively contribute towards its cementing.

Part of the interview was focused upon Kashmir. The president reiterated his proposals of demilitarization, partial demilitarization, self governance, and joint management. There seems to be a logical progression towards making the LOC as a soft border. The partial demilitarization (which implies that Srinagar, Baramula and Kupwara be demilitarized) is meant to facilitate and to enable the Indians first experiment with few districts and later it could be extended to cover other areas. This could be followed by introducing the concept of self governance. Once the self governance is in place, one can think of overall join management.

So far the Indian response to these proposals has not been very conducive to facilitate the onward movement of the peace process. On the contrary one comes across statements that Pakistan has to do more and curb the Jehadi network.  Such a statement completely ignores the work that has been undertaken by the Pakistani authorities. In many ways it generates the impression that Pakistan has done nothing to check terrorism. It becomes even more intriguing when one reads statements issued by many senior Indian officials indicating and recognizing the fact that infiltration has considerably come down.

In order to resume the dialogue, it is imperative to recognize the strides that have been made in the Indo-Pak peace process. Not only many new CBMs have been introduced but an objective analysis of the factors that helped the initiation of the peace process clearly indicates that they are, to a varying degree, still operative. Admittedly the intensity of some of those factors may have gone down, but they are still contributing in some forms.

Among the new CMBs that have been introduced in recent times include agreement on notification of ballistic missiles, hotline between the two Foreign Secretaries, agreement on the establishment of a regular communication link between Maritime Security Agency of Pakistan and the Indian Coast Guard, procedure for speedy return of inadvertent line crossers, procedure for holding flag  meetings, non development of new military posts along LOC and international border, agreement to revise border ground rules for implementation along international border, negotiation on draft agreement on nuclear risk reduction, and agreement on ensuring immediate notification of prisoners, granting them Consular access and ensuring humane treatment etc.

The factors that facilitated the initiation of the peace processes include leaders determination and comprehension of each others limitation, situation in the Indian parliament in which both the government and the opposition appeared to be committed to the process, international community’s involvement, and the increased realization of the changed global situation in terms of globalization and the ascendancy of economic imperatives after the death of the Cold War.

A simple analysis of whether or not these factors are still operative reveals that almost all of them are operative though with a varied intensity. Let us discuss them one by one. To begin with both leaders have periodically demonstrated their desire and determination to carry the peace process forward. However it needs to be stressed here that internal dynamics have influenced them to attach unnecessary riders which would satisfy many internal critics. For example Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s independence speech specifically accused Pakistan for not delivering on its pledge to stop the activities of the terrorists. This rider could also be seen as something that may have been directed towards the internal critics more than towards Pakistan if one views it within the context of Mumbai blasts and its consequent inability to track the real culprits.  

The second factor regarding the situation also seems to be still operative in some sense. One has not witnessed great opposition on the peace process from the BJP in the parliament. Third factor appears to be fully operative. Not only the number of visas issued by both sides has considerably increased but many new routes have also been opened in order to facilitate increased contacts among the people of the two countries. The third factor regarding the interest of the international community continues to be one of the important factors. However it needs to be stressed that many people have talked about its downward slide. The final factor is as operative as it was at the time initiation of the process.

Undoubtedly the vast majority of the people of the region appear to be supportive of the process. It would only be appropriate that both the Indians and the Pakistanis should be prepared to confront any wild card without causing any disruption to the process. Admittedly many Pakistanis are disappointed with pace of the process but they are fully cognizant of the overall benefits accruing from the process. However it would advisable for the Indians to accelerate the movement towards conflict resolution. Resolution of either Siachin or Sir Creek issues would certainly help enormously. Efforts need to be directed towards the early resumption of dialogue. The meeting at Havana could provide the necessary revival injection. Both sides should also consider meeting on the sides in the UN annual gatherings. High level meetings tend to generate forceful vibes for further strengthening the process.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy research Institute.