India violates LOC Truce

The POST, Sun, August,20, 2006.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

Not only the Indian Prime Minister has once again begun to sing cross border mantra but the Indian troops deployed along the Line of Control has already started violating the LOC truce by firing upon a Pakistani village in the district of Rawalakot injuring two civilians who were engaged in the reconstruction of their badly damaged house by the October 2005 earthquake. The injured were moved to sub-divisional headquarter hospital in Abbaspur.

India and Pakistan agreed to a LOC cease-fire in November 2003 and since then violations have become extremely rare. During the last one and a half year no such violation took place. The Pakistan army did not return the fire to this latest provocation. The LOC is heavily militarized but the two armies refrained from indulging in such acts especially during the last eighteen months. This recent violation could be construed as an act of individual without any backing of the senior officials. But the timing of violation tends to generate somewhat different impression.

While both the AJK government and Pakistan army took notice of this unprovoked violation and have issued warnings, the UNMOGIP(United Nations Military Observers Group in India and Pakistan) should take a serious note of it. It also needs to be mentioned that the Indians officially denied that their troops have fired upon the Pakistani village. For most Pakistanis this is not surprising. Denial after the event has become the hallmark of Indian spokesmen.

Given the creeping tension that is gradually overwhelming since the Mumbai blasts, such incidents that may have by caused by an irresponsible action of an individual or part of a carefully contrived move with the blessings of the government could make substantive contribution towards damaging the peace process. Inability to find the real culprits that were involved in the Mumbai bomb blasts, the Indian officials conveniently put the blame directly or indirectly on the Pakistan based militants groups. Instead of always looking for a scapegoat, perhaps it would do enormous good to focus on militants groups that have emerged inside India either because of Indian government’s policy pursuits or the efforts of Hindu militant organizations.

To attribute unsubstantiated allegation to Pakistan or Pakistan based groups has become a somewhat regular feature of India’s Pakistan policy. The situation improved during last couple of years primarily because of the efforts of President Musharraf and former Prime Minister Vajpayee and later to some extent by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. However it needs to asserted ever since the Congress government has replaced the BJP, some circles in Pakistan are convinced and adamant that Congress will not be able deliver. The situation was further complicated when Congress was unable to get a clear majority and was forced to form a coalition government.

There is no doubt that the Kashmir dispute has been messed up by various Congress regimes over the years. Despite the fact the current Congress Prime Minister is in a very comfortable position as regards the Kashmir dispute is concerned especially if one realizes that it was the opposition which started the process yet one finds that he is gradually being trapped into the laps of the hardliners who are bent upon destroying process as quickly as possible.

Allowing the peace process to degenerate is not in the interest of both countries. After a long time the two countries were able to initiate a dialogue aimed to resolve all issues and disputes. The last two years have seen a marked improvement in the overall atmosphere though no progress towards conflict resolution has been registered so far. Even the Siachin dispute did not show any forward movement though it is regarded as an easily resolvable dispute. While many Pakistanis were already questioning the Indian contributions to the ongoing Peace Process, the latest developments, in some ways, are pointing towards its possible halt. It would be little too far fetched to assume that it has already begun its erosion process. However one cannot overlook the unsubstantiated continuous allegations by the Indians that Pakistan is not controlling the infiltrations is not only strengthening the hands of the Pakistani and Indian hardliners but also beginning to influence the moderates especially in Pakistan.

One of the important factors that were helping the peace process to move forward is the interests and support of the international community especially of the Americans. The recent lukewarm American interests in judicious resolution of the Kashmir dispute are also strengthening the hands of the Indian hardliners. An impartial American role could provide the much needed impetus to the process. Ready acceptance of Indian interpretation of infiltrations for whatever reasons is not conducive to sustain the process. Allowing the Indians to keep singing cross border mantra could facilitate them to wriggle out of their commitments to peace process. The Americans need to change their Kashmir policy and should become pro-active in the search for a judicious solution of this festering dispute.

Speaking on the Independence Day, the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh stated that Pakistan should take concrete steps against the alleged cross-border infiltration and also claimed that India has undertaken several initiatives in this regard. One leading Pakistani newspaper questions this claim and suggested that the Indian Prime Minister should spell out some of those measures. The Pakistanis claim that there is no infiltration as Pakistan had already taken number of measures to prevent infiltration. Yet one finds that the Indians keep on leveling charges against Pakistan and India media rarely acknowledges the Pakistani efforts. The Pakistani President had already pointed to the need of changing Indian mindset. Undoubtedly the continuation of accusation and counter accusation would lead us nowhere except it would strength the hands of those vehemently opposing the peace process.

Cognizant of a large peace constituency in South Asia, Manmohan Singh highlighted the  need to work together in order to build peace yet he chose to opt for accusation rather than taking up Pakistani offer of joint investigation. There is no doubt that Pakistan has a firm policy against terrorism and has already undertaken so many measures to fight it. The latest example is Pakistan’s contributions to foil the recent terror plot alleged to have been hatched against transatlantic flights is another manifestation of Pakistan’s determination to stamp out terrorism. It appears that the Indian Prime Minister is either playing in the hands of hardliners who do not give him the correct picture or reflecting the carefully carved out strategy to avoid the conflict resolution on judicious terms.

Many in Pakistan are convinced that India is not going to resolve the ongoing Kashmir dispute judiciously. It would only be willing to accept a solution which is based on Indian terms. Being a strategic partner of the Americans, the Indians have not only become somewhat arrogant but also feel that they can easily manipulate the Americans as they need the Indians for their own policy pursuits against China. Besides, the existing economic, political, and military disparities between India and Pakistan are bound to force the Americans to opt for Indian interpretations. They tend to either downplay or completely ignore Americans global responsibilities and contributions to regional peace. In addition they also believe that the Indian community in US has not only gained similar level of influence which has been enjoyed for a long time by the Jewish organizations in US but both lobbies can work together in order to  secure the requisite dividends. This of course implies that the American policies are no longer independently made exclusively by the Americans in congruence with the dictates of American national interests but a large amount of contributions are the product of the above mentioned lobbies which are more concerned with their own countries’ interests.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy Research Institute.