Inching towards normalization

Pakistan OBSERVER, Tue, Jul,03, 2007.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

When the current peace process started following the signing of a joint statement by President Musharraf of Pakistan and the former Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee, most of us were happy that at last the two countries have decided to adopt the right track. However after the passage of three and half years the optimism initially generated is now being gradually replaced by the undesired but fast creeping pessimism. 

Admittedly one must recognize that both countries have, at least ostensibly, abandoned the military approach and have demonstrated confidence in the negotiated approach. It must also be recognized that some progress has been made but it is not all that impressive enough to sustain the initially generated optimism and strengthen confidence in the sustainability of the process. Currently the fourth round of negotiations is going on and it can be acknowledged that we are inching towards normalizations. 

Three reasons are often advanced for slow progress; hangover of the past, hangover of the past, differing security perceptions, and different interpretation of the normalization. Undoubtedly the hangover of the past especially that of hostile relationships along with wars and major border clashes enjoys tremendous hold over the attitudes and effectively prevents the governments to initiate a major de-linking with the past. Indeed it is difficult to eliminate the influence of past quickly. But if the major source of friction is tackled to the satisfaction of the involved parties, the chances of desired acceleration of the process would enormously brighten. 

Undoubtedly the major source of tension and antagonism was and in many ways still is the ongoing Kashmir dispute. While a review of speeches and statements of Pakistani leaders clearly reflect an earnest desire to have the dispute resolved but a similar review of Indian leaders’ speeches and statements generate totally different impression. Not a single move has so far been made by any Indian leader that could be viewed more different than the age old Indian position on the Kashmir dispute. 

One cannot dispute the fact that the overall atmosphere has considerably improved primarily because of the introduction of a vast network of confidence building measures (CBM). Not only the two sides are talking about all the issues that have been preventing the desired normalization and some progress in areas like trade and people to people contacts have been made though not all that impressive but no progress, so far, has been witnessed in the area of conflict resolutions. The Kashmir dispute, Siachin, Sir Creek, and water issues all remain unresolved despite the four rounds of talks. 

Apart from the ongoing complex Kashmir dispute, the security perceptions of the two countries are different. South Asia has an imbalanced and asymmetric power structure. The nature of this imbalance and asymmetry is such that India is far superior in terms of size, population, resources, and military strength to any of its neighbors. In view of this significant asymmetry, India envisages for itself a place of pre-eminence in the region and has not only been keenly asserting its position but expects to be acknowledged as such by its neighbor. 

Almost all regional neighbors have already accepted India’s pre-eminent position within the region but what they resist is the hegemonic pursuits of India. India’s vast military establishment coupled with assertive policies disregarding neighbors’ interests and aspirations forced the neighbors to opt for self defense as best as they can in view of the available resources and the operative anarchic international political system. Pakistan’s drive towards removing the initially well entrenched sense of insecurity and to strengthen its security situation was seen by the Indians as a dangerous pursuit aimed to upset the natural power balance in the region. This difference in perceptions led to mutually antagonistic policies. 

Sandwiched between hostile Indian and unfriendly Afghanistan, Pakistan’s security perceptions were largely influenced by the state of relationship with these countries. Besides, it did not inherit a comfortable security situation. In fact it was lumbered with almost all the security concerns of the British Indian government as well. Pakistan’s search for security manifested itself in the form alignment policy initially and later on self help. Pakistan’s main security concern is India whereas India’s major security concerns include China. Besides India has a global vision of itself and its quest for enlarging its military might is heavily influenced by its desire to play a global role.  This Indian quest has also led to the nuclearization of South Asia. 

Another factor that has been effectively slowing down the onward march of peace process is the difference in interpretation of the normalization. Almost all neighbors of India have recognized India’s per-eminent position in the region but the actual policy pursuits of India are more reflective of domineering and hegemonic streaks. Unless India learns to act as an elder rather than a hegemon, a true feeling of regional community would continue to remain an illusive commodity. 

A close scrutiny of last almost four years developments between India and Pakistan indicate that India lacks the sense of urgency and requisite level of willingness to resolve all the disputes equitably and to the satisfaction of all the concerned parties. It has frequently demonstrated a tendency to impose its will. If you do not accept its interpretation, it opts for delaying tactics with a view to exhaust the involved parties in order to have its own interpretation eventually accepted. 

The irony of the situation is that while India aspires to be a global actor it lack all the prerequisites deemed to be necessary for a global player. To be an effective global player, it is imperative for India to secure the support of its entire regional neighbors. To do that India must learn to act like elders who give rather than always looking for an opportunity to extract something out of it.

There is no doubt that the peace process is limping forward and slowly inching towards the desires objectives. This pace, if it is continued to be maintained, the process may never be able to attain its objectives. The importance of time and the prevalent atmosphere must be realized and capitalized. Not only the unforeseen adverse development can extract a heavy toll from what has so far been achieved but changes in global environment may further complicate the situation and may even bring the process to a grinding halt. 

The currently prevailing atmosphere along with the incumbent level of international community’s interests is indeed conducive to the acceleration of the process. This is an opportunity of life time and should not be wasted. While there in no doubt in my mind that a vast majority of both the Indians and the Pakistanis are desirous of resolution of all disputes between the two countries, the policy pursuits of the Indian government have already begun to arrest the process and begun to generate pessimism.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy research Institute.