The enlargement  of SAARC

The POST, Sun, Apr,16, 2006.

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema


The two day fifth special session of the Standing Committee of Foreign Secretaries of SAARC was held at Dhaka on 11-12 April. The Committee was confronted with three major tasks; evolving mechanism for countries interested in securing observer’s status,  working out modalities for Afghanistan’s entry into the fold of SAARC and the establishment of regional centers.

Neither of the above mentioned tasks was problematic. The representatives of all the seven countries agreed to grant both the US and South Korea observer status in SAARC. The SAARC has already granted observer status to Japan and China which facilitated the decision over the entry of new applicants. Guidelines outlining observers expected role has also been finalized. It is not too difficult to assume that the number of observer may increase in future. If the SAARC moves ahead, the chances of the more new countries seeking observer status could increase. The successful performance of an organization often attracts new observers.

Theoretically SAARC was born in 1985 at the Dhaka Summit of seven regional countries though the work towards its creation had started much earlier. The association came into existence with a baggage of disabilities and constraints. The SAARC Charter was devised first at Delhi Conference of the Council of Foreign Ministers on Aug.1, 1983 and was subsequently adopted at the first Summit. More than 20 years have passed since its birth and the need for assessing SAARC’s performance as well as enlargement seem in order.  Adopting a functional approach the association, during its first 18 years of existence, has not only experienced the regional pressures which did not allow it to attain its full potential but has also been constantly engaged in familiarizing itself with the complexities of operative international political system.  Indeed the record is a mixed one.

In the recent past particularly prior to 12^th Summit, the organization was subjected to somewhat legitimate criticism. Just as the UN Security Council did not live up to the expectations of a vast majority of the member states, SAARC also disappointed many in the region especially in terms of tangible outcomes that could have substantively affected the life of ordinary citizens of the member countries. However this does not mean that its existence, in any sense, was disapproved or even the members felt extremely disappointed.

Hailed as a much-awaited panacea for many complex problems confronting the region, its performance remained far below the augured expectations. However the successful performance of 12^th SAARC Summit at Islamabad in 2004 provided the much need reinvigoration injection to the association. The passage of Social Charter, SAFTA and Additional Protocol on Terrorism once again brightened the hopes of many in the region. Since then the SAARC has been steadily moving forward.

The introduction of four leading countries in terms of economic performances as observers to SAARC is likely to not only strengthen the association itself but it would certainly increasing trading opportunities for the member states. Despite being members of the SAARC almost all members have their major trading partners from outside the region, Almost all the members have a sizable trade with the US. The inclusion of US as observer does not appear to be a surprising move. 

The arguments for and against expansion can be convincingly made. The expansion would inject new blood and may accelerate the pace of SAARC’s collective approach towards regional development. But it can also bring new groupings and make it even more difficult to arrive at a consensus. All issues need to secure the consensus before they can be adopted by this collective forum. The induction of new members or refusal to accept expanded membership is heavily dependent upon aspirant’s bilateral relations with all the member countries.

Ever since the successful conclusion of  12^th SAARC Summit and the accompanying signing of the joint statement between the leaders of India and Pakistan, the SAARC is steadily moving ahead. The major impediment was the hostile nature of India-Pakistan relations. With the advent of the current peace process, the situation in the region was radically transformed which, in turn, is facilitating the anticipated rapid strides. The expansion of SAARC appears to be a logical outcome of incumbent environment.

Two aspects of expansion deserve comments. First, the expansion could only take place if all the members agree to amend the Charter and the Charter cannot be amended with a simple majority. It has to have the consent of all the members. It appeared rather difficult to see a consensus emerging quickly. However what was viewed as realistic was the issue could be taken up for discussion. Second the members had to seriously consider that if they allow one new observer, then the case for other aspirants would also strengthen.

The second task of the standing committee was to work out modalities for the entry of Afghanistan into the fold of SAARC. At the 13^th SAARC Summit it was decided to make Afghanistan its eighth member. It appears that the standing committee has worked out modalities for Afghanistan’s entry.  The foreign secretaries have finalized a draft declaration that would enable Afghanistan to become a full member of SAARC. Afghanistan would participate in the 14^th SAARC Summit which is due to be held at New Delhi in 2007. It is not too far fetched to assume that countries like Iran or Myanmar may also seek membership at some future date.

The Standing Committee of SAARC also seems to have considered how to strengthen the envisaged regional centers. Already two centers are working in Bangladesh and four other are being established which includes a forestry center in Bhutan, a culture center in Sri Lanka, an energy center in Pakistan and a disaster management center in India.

It is indeed encouraging to see SAARC becoming active as it was originally envisaged. SAARC Commerce ministers are scheduled to meet on 20^th April which will be followed by SAARC Home ministers meeting in Dhaka. Similarly the SAARC Finance ministers are due to meet in Islamabad sometimes in July this year.

The true potential of SAARC is now gradually being realized. One should not expect smooth sailing all the way as the main rationale for its smooth sailing would always be dependent upon the nature of bilateral relationship among the member states. The Charter stresses that all decisions have to be unanimous which clearly implies that if the bilateral relations of the two member countries take a dip downward, the chances of undesired hurdles would automatically brighten. After all the region has seen adverse relationships between India and Pakistan and its impact on the working of SAARC. The SAARC only began to move onward effectively once the India-Pakistan relations registered improvements. 

By and large the SAARC Standing Committee has successfully been able to appropriately deal with tasks it set for itself. However it needs to be stressed here that all these modalities and mechanism has to be approved by the Council of Ministers. Once it is approved by the Council of Ministers it would be placed before the heads of Governments/states at the Summit.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy Research Institute.