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The Afghan security muddleThe POST, Sun, Oct,28, 2007.Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema
It is a very difficult situation for Pakistan if it intensifies its efforts to hunt pro-Taliban elements and Al Quada fighters and chase them out of its own tribal areas, they are likely to seek sanctuaries in Afghanistan but when these elements are being chased out of Pakistani tribal areas, they invariably secure hideouts in Afghanistan. The Afghan security forces are so week that they cannot catch them or plug the infiltration. The Afghan security forces’ inability to apprehend the chased-out undesirable elements is then presented to the world that foreign fighters are entering in greater number than even before. Gen. Wardak has already admitted that its police and court system is very weak. ‘On the police reforms, the Germans were supposed to be leading but they have not dedicated much efforts and resources’, said the Afghan defense Minister. He also lamented that some coalition members-notable Italy, Germany and Japan- have only made half-hearted efforts in rebuilding Afghanistan’s security institutions. As far as the demobilization and reintegration of former Afghan forces, the Japanese did a 50-50 job. Implicit in Gen. Wardak’s statement is the recognition of Afghan forces’ inability to deal with foreign as well as the local fighters. This makes the situation rather complicated for Pakistan. If it manages to destroy all hideouts of the militants, then it would be confronted with allegations that the militants have been pushed into Afghanistan where a sizable sympathetic element welcomes them and provides the necessary cover. If Pakistan refrains from undertaking the military operations, then it is accused of not doing anything to curb their activities. Then one hears the much despised sentence that Pakistan needs to do more. In either situation, the Pakistanis are made scapegoats. The Pentagon took over the task of Afghan police training in 2005 from the state department. Since then the American military officials are carrying out a massive overhaul of Afghan police which includes the retraining of the entire 72,000 strong Afghan police involving 2350 western advisors in police stations all over the country. Undoubtedly improving the entire Afghan police force could facilitate the re-establishment of central government’s much wanted credibility. In addition the Americans are already engaged in training the Afghan National army. Around 38000 have been trained by the US and coalition forces since 2003. Currently the US and NATO have launched an ambitious plan of doubling the Afghan army and also lay foundation for Afghan air force by December 2008. The Bush administration has already asked the Congress for $8.6 billion to build the Afghan security forces. It is also expected that the international community would contribute an additional sum of $.7 billion a year. The basic objective of all that investment in the security forces is to enable the Afghan forces to replace the outsider and handle its own internal affairs. But existing situation clearly point that the desired situation is still long way away. According to an American Staff Sergeant involved in the training, the Afghan army, at the moment, is at stage that can be aptly described as crawling stage. In few years it will walk, and in 10 it will run and then the external forces would be able to leave Afghanistan. It is a well known fact that the central government of Afghanistan does not even have full control over those areas that are not under the control of Taliban and there are hardly any Taliban activists in those parts. To maintain certain semblance of control beyond Kabul, one needs efficient military as well as police force but the reality checks point towards the extremely corrupt and badly trained security forces. In a recently conduct nationwide survey a vast majority of the Afghan (around 46% of the total of around 6200 adults surveyed) believe that the security situation in their country has deteriorated further. In the 2006 survey, the problem of unemployment was at the top followed by security and corruption where as in the recent survey it is the security situation that has occupied the top position followed by unemployment and poor economy. One of the major reasons for extremely poor performance of Afghan security forces is well-entrenched and the rampart corruption in the rank and file of the Afghan security forces. Without a serious drive to end the corruption, the efforts to improve the security situation may well fail. For obvious reasons it would mean the wastage of millions of dollars that have been spent on training and improvement of security forces. Rooting out corruption in the forces is not going to be an easy task. Linked with the massive corruption of the security forces is the increasing opium production. Afghanistan has already earned the distinction of being one of the largest producers of opium in the world. Many reports indicate that last year saw a bumper crop which amounted to 935 of world’s total supply. Afghanistan accounts for more than 93% of the world’s supply of opium- a lucrative trade whose proceeds partly fund Taliban led movement in some parts of the country. Reportedly many of the important Afghan officials are known to be deeply involved in the poppy cultivation. An eminent British writer Brian Cloughley while writing in the Counterpunch on the ‘ Loren Stoddard and the Poppies of Afghanistan’ has referred to anti-drug efforts as a farce. Referring to a talk at the moment of aerial spraying to eradicate the crop in Spring next year, he stressed that it ‘would play right into the hands of the insurgents who have already convinced much of Afghanistan’s population that occupation by foreign forces is simply a rerun of the years when troops of the former Soviet Union went round blitzing villages’. If the nations involved in Afghanistan were serious to eradicate drugs, they could produce a workable plan by joint efforts. Currently Afghanistan is experiencing its worst bout of violence since the removal of Taliban regime in 2001. Little over 5000 people have already died this year in the Taliban related violence. The political process initiated by the convening of Grand Jirga need to move forward. Hopefully the next Jirga that is supposed to be held in Islamabad would manage to attract the Taliban participation and if that happens then the chances of substantive reduction in violence would brighten.
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