Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

While the fall of Kabul was not all that a great surprise for many Afghanistan watchers, the way the Taliban abandoned it and retreated towards Kandhar indeed overwhelmed many of their supporters. The fall of Kabul does not necessarily imply that war in Afghanistan is over. But it has certainly struck a great psychological blow to the confidence of the Taliban soldiers and generated enormous disappointments among the sympathizers of the Talibans. However the capture of Afghan capital has put the Northern Alliance in an advantageous position. Perhaps the consciousness of their enhanced position somewhat intoxicated them to disregard the American advice not to enter Kabul.

The Talibans claim that the abandoning Kabul is merely a tactical withdrawal. In other word they seem to imply that the Taliban fighters would regroup either to take up a major stand or to prepare themselves for a long guerrilla war, which they intend to wage from the Pakhtoon areas. In addition, the Talibans have also left many of the provinces and the control of those areas is either taken over by the local commander or one of the popular resistance veterans of war against the Soviets. Indeed Talibans' control of Afghani territory has rapidly shrunk from 90% to less than 50%. Contrary to Talibans assertions, there are others who feel that the war is virtually over. And all that remains to be undertaken is the requisite mopping up operations.

Whether or not the Talibans will continue their fight against the American supported forces of Northern Alliance remains to be seen as many reports are indicating that the Taliban forces have more or less collapsed. Apart from few thousand soldiers, most of the Taliban soldiers seem to be looking for safe sanctuaries either within their own country or in Pakistan. Many Pakistani tribes living on the Afghan border have ethnic and cultural linkages with Pakhtoons living in Afghanistan. Under the operative code of Pakhtoonwali, it is not surprising to provide sanctuaries to your ethnic Muslim brethren.

For Pakistan it is indeed very difficult to tightly seal off its border. Because of the porous nature of its Afghan border, it has so far not been able to plug the refugees trickling into the country. Despite its refusal to open the border many Afghan refugees have been able to trek their way over the mountains into Pakistan. If some of the Afghan Taliban decide to come and seek refuge with their Pakhtoon brethrens on the Pakistani side, it may be not be all that easy for the Pakistani authorities to keep them away or even to track them down especially if they take refuge in Pakistani tribal areas.

The fall of Kabul has accelerated the process of seeking a compromise formula for future Afghan political setup. It is perhaps one of the few occasions when the diplomacy has miserably lagged behind the military takeover of Kabul. Admittedly diplomacy is now moving on a fast track and the UN Security Council has been able to pass a resolution unanimously regarding the future political arrangements for Afghanistan but it still has to secure the much-needed acceptability from various factions of the Afghan society.

It was widely acknowledged that no proposal for future political arrangement would be viewed as a feasible proposition unless it pays due attentions to two extremely important aspects. Since Afghanistan is a multi ethnic and tribal society, it is absolutely essential that a future government reflect all demographic shades of Afghanistan. Cognizant of such realities the UN has approved in its latest resolution a formula-containing proposal for a 'broad-based, multi-ethnic and fully representative government'. The second aspect that cannot be ignored is that a future political set up has to be the product of indigenous efforts. No imposed solution will be able to work. Thus it would be advisable that the latest UN plan be placed before Afghan leaders of all factions in order to make it a mutually agreed and indigenously approved plan for future political set up.

While the Northern Alliance seemed to have demonstrated a much more wiser approach this time than was the case last time, the recent reports regarding summary executions in Mazar-e-Sharif are somewhat disturbing. Regarding Kabul not many reports are indicating relatively irresponsible behaviour of the troops this time. Apart from few reported incidents, the troops seem to have demonstrated a much more disciplined approach. Most reports coming out of Kabul point towards a relative calm inside the city. To expect that a conquering army while entering a won-over city would not indulge in expressing their joy over the victory and not be involved in some undesirable incidents would amount to be a somewhat unrealistic attitude. However the volume and degree of acts of brutalities and wanton plunder are reported to be very limited.

Perhaps the most important aspect of the fall of Kabul is Northern Alliance's expressed invitation to all factions/ groups to come to Kabul in order to take part in discussion regarding the future political set up or to discuss and approve the latest UN plan. In addition Northern Alliance awareness of the need for a consensus is indeed a good omen. Not only the peace and stability in Kabul is essential for evolving a compromise formula that can fill the existing power vacuum but also the Northern Alliance must work in close collaboration with the UN and US special representatives. In addition, the OIC should also get involved for future political set up.

While the UN plan is reflective of a general consensus over the concept of 'broad-based government representing all ethnic groups of Afghanistan', two pre-requisites need to be subjected to serious considerations. First, the city of Kabul should be demilitarized in order to enable all factions to come to Kabul to discuss the UN plan for future political arrangements. But one would need certain amount of forces to maintain law and order in the city. Either one can opt for international peace keeping forces or retain some of the Northern Alliance forces. An international force or a peace-keeping force would indeed be welcome than the continuing presence of Northern Alliances forces. The UN Security Council in its latest resolution has extended its approval for the formation of an international force. Countries like UK and France have already expressed their willingness to contribute to such a forces. The Americans are already actively and deeply involved in Afghanistan war.

Alternatively the task of maintaining law and order in Kabul could be left with the Northern Alliance. But the Northern Alliance itself is a fragile coalition consisting of uneasy and 'quarrelsome militias' who can easily fall apart once the enormity of likely gains becomes somewhat visible. The main elements in the Northern Alliance are ethnic Tajiks (Jamat-I-Islami), ethnic Uzbeks (Junbish-I-Milli-yi-Islami) and ethnic Hazaras (Hizb-I-Wahdat). Besides, the question that needs to be focused is whether or not the Pakhtoons and the moderate Talibans would come to Kabul in the presence of Northern Alliance troops.

Second important pre-requisite that deserve attention is that who would head the provisional government. The leaders of Northern Alliance are already stressing that Rabbani should head the provisional government. But the way Rabbani ran the government in the past is certainly not much of an advertisement. Besides Rabbani does not enjoy much clout either over the military commanders of the Northern Alliances forces or the Pakhtoons.

Alternatively the former King Zahir Shah could head the provisional government. But then the King has not only been out of Afghanistan since 1973 and played no significant part in Afghanistan's war against the Soviets but is also 87 years old. Such an old man may not be able to sustain the rigors of the shuttle diplomacy and strains of forming and maintaining a provisional government. On the positive side the King is a Pakhtoon who certainly commands respect among many factions of the Afghan society.

The unanimous approval of UN plan for a 'broad-based, multi-ethnic and fully representative' government' by the UN Security Council certainly augurs well for the future Afghan political set-up and strongly promotes UN's central role. Nevertheless the UN representatives will have to work in close collaboration with those who control the capital of Afghanistan. Indeed this gives some advantage to the Northern Alliance.